ABD\u2019de otomobil hari\u00e7 perakende sat\u0131\u015flar May\u0131s\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,8 artt\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n %0,5\u2019lik beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Bu sonu\u00e7, ay boyunca \u00e7ekirdek perakende kategorilerinde t\u00fcketici talebinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131 otomobil hari\u00e7 perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, t\u00fcketicinin diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor ve ekonominin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczden daha fazla ivmeye sahip oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, Federal Rezerv\u2019in bunu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemleri i\u00e7in fiyatlanan olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini ertelemek ad\u0131na net bir gerek\u00e7e olarak g\u00f6rece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki bu harcama g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, yak\u0131n vadede bir politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00e7ok daha az olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa para politikas\u0131n\u0131n patikas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlarken, faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fcncelliyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %30\u2019un alt\u0131na geriledi; bu, ge\u00e7en haftaya k\u0131yasla keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Veriler, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda en olas\u0131 senaryonun \u201cuzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz ortam\u0131 oldu\u011funu teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu rapor, \u00f6zellikle teknoloji ve gayrimenkul gibi faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin de\u011ferlemeleri bask\u0131lamas\u0131 nedeniyle bir ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. VIX endeksinin erken i\u015flemlerde 14,5 seviyesine y\u00fckselmi\u015f olmas\u0131yla oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in faize duyarl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 gibi pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu verinin etkisiyle ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi bekleniyor. Daha \u015fahin bir Fed, ABD ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor; Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan gelen son veriler ise daha zay\u0131f bir tabloya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde call opsiyonlar\u0131na veya uzun USD vadeli kontratlar\u0131na bakaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, 2023\u2019te g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz dinami\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik veriler, beklenen Fed politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrekli \u00f6telemi\u015fti. Bu tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faiz ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolardan fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, yenilenen ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde faiz swaplar\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ayarlamak olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz sat\u0131\u015f verisi piyasay\u0131 ters k\u00f6\u015feye yat\u0131rd\u0131: ABD\u2019de otomobil hari\u00e7 perakende sat\u0131\u015flar May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,8 artt\u0131. Fed\u2019in indirimleri erteleyebilece\u011fi fiyatlan\u0131yor; hisselerde bask\u0131, VIX\u2019te y\u00fckseli\u015f ve dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47680,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49022\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}