ABD\u2019de otomobil hari\u00e7 perakende sat\u0131\u015flar May\u0131s\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,8 artt\u0131 ve %0,5\u2019lik piyasa beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Otomobil hari\u00e7 g\u00f6stergeye g\u00f6re ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, beklentilere k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel talebe i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelen bu perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, t\u00fcketicinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi i\u00e7in daha az neden yarat\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, getirilerin y\u00fckselece\u011fi veya daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6nelmesini izliyoruz. Bu raporun ard\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %30\u2019un alt\u0131na geriledi; bu, ge\u00e7en aya k\u0131yasla belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim. Bu veri, son \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun %2,8\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131yla birlikte, Fed\u2019in sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, piyasan\u0131n \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz ortam\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla bir bask\u0131 unsuru olu\u015fturuyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 S&P 500 veya Nasdaq-100 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bir korunma (hedge) yolu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Halihaz\u0131rda 13 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde bulunan VIX\u2019in muhtemelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; VIX call opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131, piyasa t\u00fcrb\u00fclans\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda performans ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harcamadan do\u011frudan faydalanan t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (consumer discretionary) hisselerinde call opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek sekt\u00f6rler\u2014gayrimenkul (REIT\u2019ler) ve y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 teknoloji hisseleri\u2014zay\u0131f kalabilir; ilgili ETF\u2019lerde put opsiyonu, cazip bir pair trade f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda, daha temkinli bir Fed\u2019in ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi olas\u0131. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) bug\u00fcn zaten %0,4 y\u00fckseldi ve y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvelerini yeniden test etme potansiyeli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Euro gibi merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz indirim sinyali veren para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckselen dolardan faydalanacak opsiyon stratejilerine bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de otomobil hari\u00e7 perakende sat\u0131\u015flar May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,8 artarak beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131: talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi ihtimali zay\u0131flarken tahvil getirileri ve volatilite artabilir; dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir. Put\/call korunmalar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49021"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49021\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}