Kanada\u2019n\u0131n Yeni Konut Fiyat Endeksi may\u0131sta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 geriledi ve %0,1\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Veri, yeni konut fiyatlar\u0131nda yumu\u015faman\u0131n analistlerin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olan %0,1\u2019lik gerileme beklentisiyle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat verilerine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz ekledi. Rapor, yeni in\u015faat segmentindeki ko\u015fullara dair g\u00fcncel bir g\u00f6sterge sunarken, sonucun may\u0131s ay\u0131nda fiyat ivmesinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin yeni konut fiyat endeksi verisi beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda gelerek Kanada ekonomisinde so\u011fumaya i\u015faret etti. Bu olumsuz s\u00fcrpriz, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) \u00f6nceki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu, bankan\u0131n daha erken bir zamanda g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fu g\u00fcndemine almas\u0131 gerekebilece\u011fine dair net bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, Kanada dolar\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Piyasalar sonbahara kadar bir BoC faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlarken, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n USD lehine hareket etmesi muhtemel. Son veriler, USD\/CAD kurunun zaten kritik teknik diren\u00e7 seviyelerinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Artan BoC faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde faiz t\u00fcrevleri pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ayarl\u0131yoruz. Para politikas\u0131na son derece duyarl\u0131 olan Kanada 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi, bunun gibi zay\u0131f veri noktalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u015fimdiden geriledi. Piyasan\u0131n faiz indirimini tam olarak fiyatlamas\u0131yla de\u011fer kazanacak CORRA vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi enstr\u00fcmanlarda uzun pozisyon almay\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi opsiyonlar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda ise bu ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k daha defansif bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Konut piyasas\u0131 ve i\u00e7 talep harcamalar\u0131yla yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 finansallar ve t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (consumer discretionary) gibi d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel sekt\u00f6rlerde g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f performans bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle olas\u0131 bir ekonomik yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fck Kanada banka ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen t\u00fcrden sert konut fiyat\u0131 yava\u015flamas\u0131 d\u00f6nemleri \u00e7o\u011fu zaman BoC politikas\u0131nda bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc oldu. Enflasyon BoC i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir risk unsuru olsa da, bu yeni konut verisi talepte yava\u015flamaya dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011finde. Bu tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, faizlerde en az diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n art\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kanada\u2019da yeni konut fiyatlar\u0131 may\u0131sta %0,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; beklenti %0,1\u2019di. Yumu\u015fama h\u0131zlan\u0131yor: BoC\u2019nin daha erken g\u00fcvercinle\u015fmesi ve faiz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken USD\/CAD\u2019de yukar\u0131 ivme, CORRA long ve banka ETF putlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49019","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49019"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49019\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49019"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49019"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49019"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}