ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %0,9 artarak %0,5\u2019lik tahminin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7, d\u00f6nem boyunca t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k bazda %0,9\u2019luk ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, %0,5\u2019lik konsens\u00fcs tahmininin 0,4 puan \u00fczerinde geldi. Veri, May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ABD aktivite g\u00f6stergeleri serisine eklenirken, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar hanehalk\u0131 talebini zaman\u0131nda \u00f6l\u00e7en bir g\u00f6sterge olarak s\u0131k\u00e7a kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n %0,9 gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir seviyede gelmesi, t\u00fcketicinin beklenenden \u00e7ok daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bunun, Fed\u2019den yaz aylar\u0131nda bir faiz indirimi gelmesini son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimale indirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 270 binin \u00fczerinde istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden son istihdam raporuyla birlikte bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harcama e\u011filimi, ekonominin h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek tempoda seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan pozisyonlara bak\u0131yoruz. Bu, Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 veya y\u0131l sonuna y\u00f6nelik faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi i\u00e7eriyor; zira piyasan\u0131n beklenen faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamaktan vazge\u00e7mesi gerekebilir. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3,4 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steren son T\u00dcFE verisi de Fed\u2019in i\u015finin hen\u00fcz bitmedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonominin k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 desteklerken y\u00fcksek faizlerin de\u011ferlemeler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurdu\u011fu zorlu bir denge yarat\u0131yor. Bu belirsizli\u011fin piyasadaki dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in VIX \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir korunma arac\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu ortam, 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini and\u0131r\u0131yor; beklenmedik ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, piyasa y\u00fckselse bile oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7inde, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harcama trendinden do\u011frudan faydaland\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim (consumer discretionary) ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, kamu hizmetleri (utilities) ve gayrimenkul gibi faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde temkinliyiz; bu alanlarda put opsiyonlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Bu sekt\u00f6rler, piyasa merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin kalaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tarihsel olarak daha zay\u0131f performans sergiler.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in daha kararl\u0131\/\u015fahin bir duru\u015f sergilemesi beklentisi, ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek unsuru olmal\u0131. Dolar endeksi vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlara veya dolar\u0131 takip eden ETF\u2019lerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, ECB\u2019nin kendi gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Avrupa\u2019da s\u00fcregelen ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015faretleri de g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz! ABD\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015flar May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,9 artarak beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; t\u00fcketici g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Bu tablo Fed\u2019in yaz indirimi ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor, faizleri y\u00fcksek tutabilir; dolar destekli, oynakl\u0131k artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49018\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}