Nvidia hisseleri, haziran ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7ip sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131yla gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 236 dolardan 200 dolar civar\u0131na indi; ard\u0131ndan son iki haftada dengelendi. Bu duraklama, yak\u0131ndan izlenen iki teknik g\u00f6stergeyle ayn\u0131 zamana denk geldi: 164 dolarl\u0131k dipten 236 dolarl\u0131k tepeye uzanan mart\u2013may\u0131s rallisinin %50 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi ve mart diplerinden \u00e7izilen, fiyat destek bulduk\u00e7a yatayla\u015fan anchored VWAP (\u00e7apal\u0131 hacim a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 ortalama fiyat). Bu \u00e7ak\u0131\u015fma, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn durdu\u011fu b\u00f6lgeyi tan\u0131mlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Son i\u015flemler, bo\u011fa bayra\u011f\u0131 (bull-flag) tarz\u0131 bir konsolidasyona i\u015faret ederken, piyasa \u00f6ncesi seviyeler 207\u2013208 dolar civar\u0131ndayken fiyat\u0131n %38,2 d\u00fczeltmeye yak\u0131n \u00fcst banda testler yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Referans verilen temel arka plan ise hyperscaler capex (b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bulut sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n sermaye harcamalar\u0131): Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon ve Meta\u2019n\u0131n birle\u015fik sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 2025\u2019te yakla\u015f\u0131k 410 milyar dolardan bu y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k 725 milyar dolara y\u00fckselmesi; piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ise 2027\u2019de 1 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine i\u015faret etmesi bekleniyor. Bayrak formasyonu ve %38,2 seviyesinin \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ve kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, dikkati \u00f6nceki zirvelere ve %23,6 b\u00f6lgesine yeniden y\u00f6neltebilirken; anchored VWAP ve %50 d\u00fczeltmenin alt\u0131ndaki bir kapan\u0131\u015f, 200\u2019lerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00f6lgesini ve 196 dolar alan\u0131n\u0131 tekrar g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131lar\u0131 tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131na odaklan\u0131rken, biz Nvidia grafi\u011finin daha do\u011frudan bir hik\u00e2ye anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Hisse sert geri \u00e7ekildi ancak 200 dolar civar\u0131nda net bir taban buldu; bu seviye \u00f6nemli. Bu destek, mart\u2013may\u0131s rallisindeki %50 d\u00fczeltme ile mart diplerinden bu yana \u00f6denen ortalama fiyat\u0131 temsil eden b\u00f6lgenin kesi\u015fimi oldu\u011fundan teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de bu teknik tabana g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Microsoft ve Amazon gibi devlerin hyperscaler sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 700 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 bekleniyor; bunun kayda de\u011fer bir k\u0131sm\u0131 Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ipleriyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan yapay zek\u00e2 veri merkezlerine ayr\u0131l\u0131yor. Microsoft\u2019un 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin son y\u00f6nlendirmesi, yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131s\u0131na agresif yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini besleyen talep hatt\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan i\u015flem kurgusu potansiyel bir bo\u011fa bayra\u011f\u0131; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mda aksiyon almaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz. 208 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kararl\u0131 bir hareketi izliyoruz; bu, formasyonu teyit eder ve \u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin devam\u0131na i\u015faret eder. B\u00f6yle bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, 236 dolar civar\u0131ndaki eski zirvelere do\u011fru beklenen hareketi oynamak i\u00e7in temmuz veya a\u011fustos vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almam\u0131za neden olur.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n alt\u0131nda prim satma konusunda da rahat\u0131z. 200 dolarl\u0131k psikolojik seviyenin alt\u0131na k\u0131sa kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 koyarak put credit spread (bo\u011fa put spread) satmak, riskimizi tan\u0131mlarken y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu strateji, hisse vade sonuna kadar sadece belirledi\u011fimiz kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece; hem fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselmesinden hem de zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (theta) faydalanarak k\u00e2r sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi kritik ve grafik bize net bir \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201d veriyor. Anchored VWAP ve %50 d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin alt\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kapan\u0131\u015f, y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar. Bu deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, uzun pozisyonlardan \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ve 196 dolar b\u00f6lgesini hedeflemek \u00fczere put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi tercih ederiz.<\/p>\n
Z\u0131mni volatilite (implied volatility) bu konsolidasyon s\u0131ras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; bu da opsiyon al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Mevcut ortam\u0131, olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n volatiliteyi ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 itmesinden \u00f6nce call almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Kritik nokta, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in anlaml\u0131 sermaye ba\u011flamadan \u00f6nce fiyat teyidini beklemek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Nvidia 236\u2019dan 200\u2019e indi, 200\u2019de %50 Fibonacci ve anchored VWAP kesi\u015fimi destek oldu. Bo\u011fa bayra\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. 208 \u00fcst\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m 236\u2019ya; alt kapan\u0131\u015f 196\u2019ya. Hyperscaler capex 725 milyar $.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47696,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49017","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49017","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49017"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49017\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47696"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49017"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49017"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49017"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}