Societe Generale, Bank of Japan\u2019\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere son politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n keskin kur hareketleri yaratmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda G10 d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc payla\u015ft\u0131. Odak, merkez bankas\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmesinin USD\/JPY \u00fczerindeki k\u0131sa vadeli etkisine \u00e7evrilirken, pozisyonlanma \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha temkinli bir duru\u015f sinyali verebilece\u011fi ihtimali etraf\u0131nda \u015fekilleniyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcvercin Fed senaryosunda \u00f6nerilen i\u015flem, USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon ile birlikte USD\/SEK\u2019te k\u0131sa pozisyon. Ayr\u0131 olarak notta, \u015fahin bir Fed s\u00fcrprizinin EUR\u2019da ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131kla ili\u015fkilendirildi\u011fi belirtiliyor. G\u00fcncelleme, BOJ faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na at\u0131f yaparken, g\u00f6reli politika duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n G10 FX performans\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l \u015fekillendirebilece\u011fine odakland\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 hamlelerinin \u2014 ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki bir Bank of Japan (BOJ) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dahil \u2014 d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sarsmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak odak art\u0131k net bi\u00e7imde Fed\u2019in ataca\u011f\u0131 bir sonraki ad\u0131mlara kay\u0131yor. Mevcut ortam, Fed\u2019in daha temkinli ya da g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etmesi halinde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamaya e\u011filimli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son ekonomik veriler bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor: May\u0131s 2026 T\u00dcFE raporunda \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,8\u2019e gerileyerek iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca son istihdam raporu, i\u015fe al\u0131mlarda yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etti; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 160 bin art\u0131\u015fla piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu veriler, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara vermesini veya ileride faiz indirimlerine kap\u0131 aralayacak bir sinyal vermesini g\u00fcndeme getirebilecek yeterli gerek\u00e7e sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde USD\/JPY paritesinde k\u0131sa pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Potansiyel olarak g\u00fcvercin bir Fed ile ultra-gev\u015fek politikalardan kademeli uzakla\u015fan bir BOJ aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir arg\u00fcman olu\u015fturuyor. USD\/JPY\u2019de put opsiyonu almak, riski y\u00f6netirken beklenen harekete kat\u0131lmak i\u00e7in etkili bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in gev\u015feme d\u00f6nemleri, dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7abildi; 2023\u2019\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131n 2024 i\u00e7in faiz indirimlerini fiyatlamaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler buna \u00f6rnek g\u00f6steriliyor. Mevcut kurulumun bu dinami\u011fi yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve benzer bir sonucun olas\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Bu e\u011filimin, bir sonraki Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda ivme kazanmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fcvercin senaryo, \u0130sve\u00e7 kronunun daha zay\u0131f bir dolardan fayda sa\u011flayabilecek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle USD\/SEK\u2019te k\u0131sa pozisyonu da cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed\u2019in \u015fahin bir mesajla s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 durumunda, Euro\u2019da (EUR) yeniden zay\u0131flama g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi bekleniyor. Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme patikas\u0131, EUR\u2019yu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zellikle k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar sakin ama kritik e\u015fik yakla\u015f\u0131yor: SocGen\u2019e g\u00f6re g\u00fcvercin Fed sinyali dolar\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir. Strateji: USD\/JPY ve USD\/SEK\u2019te k\u0131sa; \u015fahin Fed s\u00fcrprizi ise EUR\u2019da ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131k riski do\u011furuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47883,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49015"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49015\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}