{"id":49013,"date":"2026-06-17T16:34:45","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T16:34:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fed-oncesi-dolar-yatay-seyrediyor-brent-80-dolarin-altina-inerken-iran-anlasmasi-yaklasiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T16:34:45","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T16:34:45","slug":"fed-oncesi-dolar-yatay-seyrediyor-brent-80-dolarin-altina-inerken-iran-anlasmasi-yaklasiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-oncesi-dolar-yatay-seyrediyor-brent-80-dolarin-altina-inerken-iran-anlasmasi-yaklasiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed \u00d6ncesi Dolar Yatay Seyrediyor; Brent 80 Dolar\u0131n Alt\u0131na \u0130nerken \u0130ran Anla\u015fmas\u0131 Yakla\u015f\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 bant i\u00e7inde seyrediyor; ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131n\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc planlanan imza t\u00f6reni \u00f6ncesinde ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gerilese de. Brent, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na inerek pek \u00e7ok analistin y\u0131l sonu tahminlerine bask\u0131 yapt\u0131. Petrolde ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n da may\u0131n temizli\u011fi, sigorta teminatlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131, kapal\u0131 \u00fcretimin yeniden ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ihtiyati stoklama nedeniyle normalle\u015fmeyi yava\u015flataca\u011f\u0131 ve zaman alaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da da faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi ve \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filimi\u201d (easing bias) mesaj\u0131n\u0131 oybirli\u011fiyle kald\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Politika ileti\u015fimi, net bir y\u00f6n sinyali vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rken kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ve daha sa\u011flam bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde kurgulan\u0131yor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak e\u011filim s\u00fcrerse Fed\u2019e sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalma alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor; ancak genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD dolar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tetikleyecek net bir kataliz\u00f6r bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde tarif ediliyor. Bu da oda\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6viz \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda g\u00f6reli de\u011fer (relative value) i\u015flemlerine \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

\n

Fed Toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00d6ncesi Piyasalar Sakin<\/h3>\n

Federal Rezerv\u2019in yakla\u015fan politika karar\u0131n\u0131 herkesin beklemesiyle d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d modunda oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesi enflasyon endi\u015felerini yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; ancak bu etkinin ge\u00e7ici olmas\u0131 muhtemel. EUR\/USD gibi maj\u00f6r paritelerde bir haftal\u0131k opsiyonlar\u0131n ima edilen volatilitesi 5,5% civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine gerileyerek bu sakinli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in politika faizini \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da da sabit tutmas\u0131 ve resmi \u201cgev\u015feme\u201d y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini geri \u00e7ekmesi bekleniyor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun 3,2% ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131 ve son istihdam raporunda 205 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, bu temkinli duru\u015fu destekliyor. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 aleyhine pozisyon almas\u0131 i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede belirgin bir gerek\u00e7eyi ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\n

Bant \u0130\u00e7inde Kalan Dolarda FX \u0130\u015flem F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Dolar\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde kalma ihtimali y\u00fcksekken, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatiliteden getiri \u00fcreten stratejileri tercih ediyoruz. USD\/CAD gibi paritelerde opsiyon strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, kur belirli bir aral\u0131kta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece prim toplamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasada net bir y\u00f6n kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc olmamas\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019la gerilimin azalmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeyebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Lojistik zorluklar ve stoklar\u0131n yeniden in\u015fa edilmesi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n Brent i\u00e7in 75-78 dolar band\u0131nda bir taban olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Bu da Fed\u2019i faiz indirimlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye zorlayacak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir dezenflasyon \u015fokunu engeller.<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in 2023\u2019teki uzun \u201cbekleme\u201d d\u00f6nemini and\u0131r\u0131yor; o d\u00f6nemde dolar aylarca yatay i\u015flemler g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f, volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ise istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir strateji olmu\u015ftu. Yaz boyunca benzer bir dinami\u011fin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle tercihimiz, y\u00f6ns\u00fcz dolara do\u011frudan maruz kalmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131narak d\u00f6viz \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda g\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemleri yapmak. \u00d6rne\u011fin, AUD\/NZD uzun pozisyonu, Avustralya ve Yeni Zelanda\u2019daki ayr\u0131\u015fan ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerden fayda sa\u011flayabilir. Bu sayede Fed\u2019in dolar\u0131 bir sonraki ad\u0131mda hangi y\u00f6ne itece\u011fine dair bahis oynamadan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f alabiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FOMC \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 bantta; Brent 80 dolar alt\u0131na inse de kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutup \u201cgev\u015feme\u201d e\u011filimini kald\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor; dolarda kataliz\u00f6r yok, g\u00f6reli de\u011fer \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49013","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49013"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49013\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49013"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49013"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49013"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}