G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi Nisan ay\u0131nda %1,3\u2019e yava\u015flayarak \u00f6nceki aydaki %2,6 seviyesinden geriledi. Veriler, perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ciro art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n Mart ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131 okumas\u0131, bir \u00f6nceki veriye g\u00f6re 1,3 puanl\u0131k bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. B\u00f6ylece y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, bir ay \u00f6nce kaydedilen h\u0131z\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 kadar artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nisan i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,3\u2019e gerilemesi, zay\u0131flayan bir t\u00fcketici ortam\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. Bu e\u011filim, hanehalk\u0131 harcanabilir gelirleri \u00fczerinde artan bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na girerken i\u00e7 ekonomik ivmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu do\u011frultuda, G\u00fcney Afrika Rand\u0131 \u00fczerinde ilave bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. USD\/ZAR paritesi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 18,65 seviyesini test ederken, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 veriler para birimine ili\u015fkin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor. Bu nedenle, Temmuz ay\u0131ndaki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131na vadeli USD\/ZAR al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call) bakarak randdaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi taraf\u0131nda ise bu veri, t\u00fcketici odakl\u0131 hisseler ve son bir ayda %2 de\u011fer kaybeden JSE All Share Endeksi i\u00e7in olumsuz bir unsur. Perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hisselerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u00e2r revizyonlar\u0131na \u00f6zellikle a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak amac\u0131yla perakende odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik yava\u015flama ve May\u0131s ay\u0131 enflasyonunun %4,8\u2019e gerilemesi, G\u00fcney Afrika Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, t\u00fcketici zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemler parasal gev\u015femeden \u00f6nce gelmi\u015ftir. Yakla\u015fan Temmuz PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyor ve y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in forward rate agreement (FRA) kullan\u0131m\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fla\u015f: G\u00fcney Afrika\u2019da perakende sat\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi Nisan\u2019da %1,3\u2019e indi; zay\u0131f t\u00fcketici g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc rand\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. USD\/ZAR call, perakende ETF put ve Temmuz sonras\u0131 g\u00fcvercin SARB beklentisiyle FRA f\u0131rsat\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49012","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49012","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49012"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49012\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}