Alt\u0131n \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.332,60 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve seans genelinde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken temkinli duru\u015funu korudu. Haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli makro g\u00fcndem maddesi \u00f6ncesinde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n belirgin y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131yla fiyat hareketi bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Odak ise noktasal grafik (dot plot) gibi g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f projeksiyonlar ve Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda olacak. 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7eve mutabakat muht\u0131ras\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131nda kesinti riskine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri azaltarak son d\u00f6nemde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa katk\u0131 verdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, anla\u015fman\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik belirsizlik ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin gelecekteki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde s\u00fcren g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 momentumun zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Alt\u0131nda bir sonraki y\u00f6n\u00fcn, Fed\u2019in g\u00fcvercin mi yoksa \u015fahin mi bir ton benimsedi\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD tahvil getirileri ve dolar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli seyrini \u015fekillendirmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
17 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla, alt\u0131n fiyat hareketinin dar bir band\u0131n i\u00e7ine s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, \u00f6nemli bir Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde tipik bir davran\u0131\u015f. Yak\u0131n vadeli alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite y\u00fckseldi; bu da Fed karar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan belirgin bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmadan fayda sa\u011flayacak opsiyonlar i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek prim \u00f6demeyi g\u00f6ze ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde artan volatiliteden yararlanan stratejilerin makul oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. Ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve vadeye sahip hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren uzun straddle, bu beklentiyi do\u011frudan i\u015flemeye yarayan bir y\u00f6ntemdir. Bu pozisyon, alt\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket ederse etsin k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7ebilir; b\u00f6ylece Fed\u2019in tonunu do\u011fru tahmin etme gere\u011fi ortadan kalkar.<\/p>\n
Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019tan daha \u015fahin bir mesaj bekleyenler i\u00e7in sat\u0131m spread\u2019leri (put spread) al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir risk sunar. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019in beklenmedik \u015fekilde faiz indirimine dair projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde, alt\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fayabiliyor; 2024 sonlar\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir s\u00fcrprizin ard\u0131ndan bir hafta i\u00e7inde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz %3\u2019l\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmeye benzer. Put spread, yerle\u015fik destek seviyelerine do\u011fru olas\u0131 benzer bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir pozisyonlanma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, Fed\u2019in halihaz\u0131rda fiyatlanan\u0131n \u00f6tesinde daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f benimseyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorsak, al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) tercih edilen enstr\u00fcmanlar olur. Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 \u015fu anda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrekte faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ihtimal olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131racak herhangi bir sinyal alt\u0131n\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. G\u00fcvercin bir s\u00fcrpriz, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131p alt\u0131n\u0131 son d\u00f6nemdeki diren\u00e7lerinin \u00fczerine itebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, son ABD\u2013\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7eve anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131yoruz. Bu geli\u015fme jeopolitik riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek alt\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini ge\u00e7ici olarak azaltm\u0131\u015f durumda. Mevcut s\u00f6n\u00fck fiyat hareketine katk\u0131 veren bu unsur, Fed g\u00fcvercin olsa bile yukar\u0131 potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Ancak anla\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funa dair herhangi bir i\u015faret, risk primini h\u0131zla yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yarak alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir taban olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Burada kritik olan, i\u015flemleri Fed etkinli\u011finin kendisi etraf\u0131nda yap\u0131land\u0131rmak ve ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak hareketi yakalayabilmek i\u00e7in vadesi bu haftan\u0131n \u00f6tesine uzanan opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanmakt\u0131r. Bu volatilite veya y\u00f6n pozisyonlar\u0131na duyuru \u00f6ncesinde girmeyi tercih ederiz. Etkinlik sonras\u0131nda yeni trend \u015fekillendik\u00e7e, bu ilk pozisyonlar y\u00f6netilebilir ya da kapat\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda kritik viraj: 4.332,6 dolarda yatay seyir s\u00fcrerken piyasalar FOMC\u2019yi bekliyor. Dot plot ve Warsh\u2019\u0131n tonu y\u00f6n\u00fc belirleyecek. Opsiyonlarda volatilite y\u00fckseliyor; straddle, put\/call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ABD\u2013\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131 risk primi azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49009","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49009","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49009"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49009\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49009"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49009"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49009"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}