AUD\/USD, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) haziranda politika faizini %4,35\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti. RBA, \u015fubat, mart ve may\u0131sta arka arkaya gelen \u00fc\u00e7 adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu karar\u0131, ekonomi zay\u0131flaman\u0131n erken i\u015faretlerini verirken s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n gecikmeli etkilerini de\u011ferlendirme zaman\u0131 olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi; enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201c\u00e7ok y\u00fcksek\u201d kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle ise s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimini korudu. Banka ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel enerji risklerine ba\u011fl\u0131 y\u00fcksek belirsizli\u011fe ve olas\u0131 stagflasyonist sonu\u00e7lara dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullar, zay\u0131flayan hanehalk\u0131 talebi ve artan i\u015fsizli\u011fin enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 kademeli olarak so\u011futmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini savunarak uzun bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d d\u00f6nemini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasada AUD\/USD, RBA\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131l ilk kez faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde 0,7067\u2019de kapan\u0131rken %0,07 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcn politika faizini %4,60\u2019ta sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Avustralya dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in belirsiz bir d\u00f6neme girildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. RBA yeniden faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde net bir e\u011filim ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, son veriler enflasyonun %3,8\u2019e hafif geriledi\u011fini ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da \u00f6nceki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n etkisinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eahin bir merkez bankas\u0131 ile yumu\u015fayan bir ekonomi aras\u0131ndaki bu gerilim, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde f\u0131rsatlar yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ana senaryomuz uzun bir ara d\u00f6nemi olup, bunun AUD\/USD\u2019yi bir bant i\u00e7inde tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda uygun stratejinin volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00f6zellikle de mevcut 0,6650 seviyesi civar\u0131nda AUD\/USD paritesinde k\u0131sa vadeli strangle yaz\u0131lmas\u0131. Temmuz vadeli 0,6800 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call ile 0,6500 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, beklenen bu yatay-s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6nemden faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle yakla\u015fan \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE verisi \u00f6nemli bir kataliz\u00f6r olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, her iki y\u00f6nde de riskler mevcut. Sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir sigorta olarak ucuz, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. Beklenenden zay\u0131f bir k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi veya yurti\u00e7i bir \u015fok, Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n kritik destek seviyelerinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda da de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; vadeli i\u015flemler y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatl\u0131yor. Ayl\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %0,2\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yeni bir art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in e\u015fi\u011fin piyasan\u0131n ima etti\u011finden daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. RBA\u2019n\u0131n beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre beklemede kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle, k\u0131sa vadeli swaplarda sabit faiz al\u0131m\u0131 (receive fixed) y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBA\u2019n\u0131n faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 AUD\/USD\u2019yi yataya kilitledi: \u015fahin ton s\u00fcrse de ekonomi so\u011fuyor, belirsizlik art\u0131yor. Strateji: 0,6650 civar\u0131 strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, OTM putla korunma; swapta receive fixed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49004","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49004","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49004\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}