Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) politika faizini 25 bp art\u0131rarak %1,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltti. Hamle geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bekleniyordu. Karar, elde tutmay\u0131 tercih eden yeni kurul \u00fcyesi Asada\u2019dan bir muhalefet oyu ald\u0131. BoJ ayr\u0131ca tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki azalt\u0131m\u0131n (tapering) Nisan 2027\u2019de sona erece\u011fini teyit etti. Piyasa tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131 ve yen k\u0131sa vadede k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 bir destek buldu.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik e\u011filimini korurken daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131na i\u015faret etmedi. Politika faizi 30 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde olsa da Japonya h\u00e2l\u00e2 G10 i\u00e7inde en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck reel faize sahip; bu da BoJ daha net bi\u00e7imde \u015fahinle\u015fmedik\u00e7e yeni bir fonlama para birimi olarak g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160\u2019\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde seyretmesiyle m\u00fcdahale riskinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtilirken, yaln\u0131zca uyar\u0131lar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetiklemesinin olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019nin son faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 %1,0\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyen g\u00fcvercin bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisi %2,8 seviyesindeyken, reel faiz derin \u015fekilde negatif ve -%1,8 d\u00fczeyinde. Bu durum, yenin carry trade i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in birincil fonlama para birimi olma stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor.<\/p>\n
Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maya devam etmek; \u00f6zellikle parite bu sabah 160,85 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken. ABD\u2019de Fed fonlama faizi %4,0 seviyesinde kal\u0131rken, geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 pariteye daha y\u00fcksek seviyeleri test etmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Daha agresif bir BoJ duru\u015fu olmadan en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 yolunun h\u00e2l\u00e2 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev stratejimizde, ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fi yakalamak i\u00e7in 162 ve 163 civar\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale riski, 2022 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz keskin ancak ge\u00e7ici geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere benzer \u015fekilde, \u00f6nemli boyutta. Bu da ima edilen volatiliteyi y\u00fcksek tutuyor; Cboe\/JPX JPY Volatilite Endeksi bu hafta 11,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahaleden kaynaklanabilecek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, ucuz, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kademeli bi\u00e7imde ekliyoruz. Bu, 158 seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 tampon sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ana carry trade pozisyonunda kalmam\u0131za izin verirken yetkililerin harekete ge\u00e7mesi durumunda riskimizi tan\u0131mlamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ faizi 25 bp art\u0131r\u0131p %1,0\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; tapering 2027\u2019de bitecek. Piyasa sakin, yen zay\u0131f. Negatif reel faiz carry\u2019yi canl\u0131 tutuyor; USD\/JPY 160+; m\u00fcdahale riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47826,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49003\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47826"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}