MUFG, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert geri \u00e7ekilme sonras\u0131 Brent ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011fini ve bunun 3 Mart\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini belirtti. Yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay i\u00e7inde ham petrol, 18 May\u0131s\u2019taki g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zirvesinden %30 geriledi. Banka bu hamleyi, enerji kaynakl\u0131 yak\u0131n vadeli enflasyon risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltan ve daha geni\u015f enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini de\u011fi\u015ftiren bir geli\u015fme olarak yorumlad\u0131; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ise genel olarak \u015fahin duru\u015funu ve projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 koruyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, petrol hareketinin \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fine k\u0131yasla daha temkinli kald\u0131. Ham petrol yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 d\u00fc\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen, ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmedi; bu da yak\u0131n vadeli bir \u201cevent risk\u201d \u00f6ncesinde faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlama i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Yaz\u0131 ayr\u0131ca petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc, risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda toptan bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm yaratmaktan ziyade; hisse senetlerindeki s\u00fcregelen ralliyi ve beklentileri a\u015fan \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin etkisini k\u0131smen dengeleyen bir unsur olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78,50 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelenmesiyle, %30\u2019luk sert fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylara ili\u015fkin enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc temelden de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son man\u015fet T\u00dcFE raporu da bunu teyit etti; y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %2,9\u2019a gerilerken, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde enerji kalemindeki gerilemeden kaynakland\u0131. Bu durum, Fed sert s\u00f6ylemini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse bile, kuruma \u00f6nemli bir hareket alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in d\u00fcn gece faizi sabit tutarken \u015fahin bir e\u011filime i\u015faret eden karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde daha \u201cg\u00fcvercinle\u015fmi\u015f\u201d bir politika ihtimalini eksik fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi neredeyse k\u0131p\u0131rdamad\u0131; bu, trader\u2019lar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hisse performans\u0131n\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 yeni dezenflasyonist kuvvetle tartmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde bize f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor; zira Fed\u2019in agresif art\u0131\u015flarla enflasyonu kovalamak i\u00e7in art\u0131k daha az gerek\u00e7esi var.<\/p>\n
Bu kurgu alt\u0131nda, baz\u0131 segmentlerde ima edilen volatilitenin pahal\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. VIX halihaz\u0131rda 14 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 12,5\u2019e indi ve enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015fokuna ili\u015fkin acil tehdit ortadan kalkt\u0131k\u00e7a faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde volatilitenin daha da s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Volatilite satmay\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa strangle stratejileriyle; yaz boyunca daha \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir ve bant i\u00e7inde bir faiz ortam\u0131na oynayarak de\u011ferlendirmeyi planl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak 2014-2016 d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendik\u00e7e getiri e\u011frisinin yatayla\u015fmas\u0131na (flattening) yol a\u00e7t\u0131. 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri aras\u0131ndaki e\u011frinin yatayla\u015fmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan spread i\u015flemlerine girerek benzer bir dinamik i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bu, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131nda faiz indirmeyebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc korurken, ilave agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma gerek\u00e7esinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair beklentimizi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n kendi dinami\u011finde ise, ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporunda 2,1 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 arz-talep dengesinin gev\u015fek kalmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir toparlanma beklemiyoruz; bu nedenle, y\u00f6nsel (directional) bahislerden ziyade bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejileri daha cazip buluyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n bu yeni, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyat seviyesini sindirdi\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te gelir yaratmak i\u00e7in enerji ETF\u2019lerinde uzun pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 covered call satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f: Brent 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi, zirveden %30 geriledi. Enerji dezenflasyonu Fed\u2019e alan a\u00e7arken piyasa temkinli; 2Y de\u011fi\u015fmedi, volatilite pahal\u0131, e\u011fri yatayla\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49002","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49002"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49002\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}