AUD\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) \u015fahin tondaki toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen y\u00fckseli\u015fi kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lamad\u0131 ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci g\u00fcnde de zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bununla birlikte, piyasalar iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sonucunu beklerken parite 0,7050\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutundu. Fed\u2019in karar\u0131n\u0131 ABD seans\u0131n\u0131n ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enflasyon yap\u0131\u015fkan seyrini korurken, Fed\u2019in faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi ancak gev\u015feme e\u011filimine i\u015faret eden s\u00f6ylemden uzakla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Odak noktas\u0131 politika metni, g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f ekonomik projeksiyonlar ve noktasal grafik (dot plot) olacak. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ise ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc ve paritede k\u0131sa vadeli momentum \u00fczerinde belirleyici olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Kritik risk ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda ba\u015flayan sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeyi hedefleyen ge\u00e7ici bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesine ili\u015fkin iyimserlikle \u015fekillendi. Mutabakat zapt\u0131; 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ate\u015fkes, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere giden bir yol haritas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu geli\u015fme, USD\u2019yi Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen haftal\u0131k dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n tutarken, RBA\u2019n\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmesiyle birlikte AUD\u2019yi de destekledi. RBA, \u00f6nceki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n etkisini izlemek i\u00e7in politika faizini %4,35\u2019te sabit tuttu ancak enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 halinde ilave art\u0131\u015flara gidebilece\u011fini belirtti. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, ge\u00e7en ay g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan 0,7275-0,7280 b\u00f6lgesinden gelen son geri \u00e7ekilmenin pe\u015finden agresif \u015fekilde gitme konusunda temkinli kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD paritesinin, piyasalar\u0131n bug\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 beklemesiyle 0,7050 \u00fczerinde konsolide oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. RBA\u2019n\u0131n son \u015fahin \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d hamlesi \u015fimdilik kur i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Ancak bir sonraki maj\u00f6r hareketin ana belirleyicisi Fed\u2019in yeni ekonomik projeksiyonlar\u0131 ve dot plot olacak.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, May\u0131s ay\u0131 ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin %3,8 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle Fed\u2019in politika gev\u015femesine i\u015faret etme alan\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Yeni dot plot\u2019ta uzun vadeli faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir revizyon olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 ve enflasyonla m\u00fccadele odakl\u0131 bir duru\u015fu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Son ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesi, g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltarak ABD dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirgin bir bask\u0131 unsuru. Bunun petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden g\u00f6rd\u00fck; WTI ham petrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 haberleriyle son bir haftada 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden 88 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi. Artan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 genellikle Avustralya dolar\u0131 gibi emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerini destekler.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferlendirmemize g\u00f6re, Avustralya\u2019da 1\u00c7 enflasyonunun h\u00e2l\u00e2 %4,5 ile y\u00fcksek seyretmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda RBA\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131 inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %3,9 ile sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131n teyit etti\u011fi s\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131na \u015fahin kalma gerek\u00e7esi sunuyor. Avustralya ekonomisindeki bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, AUD\/USD paritesinde belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
FOMC ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ikili (binary) niteli\u011fi nedeniyle, do\u011frudan y\u00f6n tahminine dayal\u0131 i\u015flemlerin riskli oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. AUD\/USD\u2019de bir haftal\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite %14,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasan\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 bir hareketi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, y\u00f6n\u00fc tahmin etmeden beklenen fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 etkili bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut fiyat hareketini, ge\u00e7en ay 0,7280 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveden sonra sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltme olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu tablo, 2022 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cbeklemelerin\u201d faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bitti\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmeyip, verileri de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ici bir duraklama oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Fed\u2019den \u015fahin bir sabit b\u0131rakma (hawkish hold) pariteyi 0,6900\u2019e do\u011fru itebilirken, n\u00f6tr bir duru\u015f 0,7200\u2019nin yeniden test edilmesini beraberinde getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/USD, RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin tonu sonras\u0131 0,7050 \u00fczerinde tutunuyor; y\u00f6n\u00fc bu gece Fed\u2019in dot plot\u2019u ve Warsh\u2019\u00fcn mesaj\u0131 belirleyecek. ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken oynakl\u0131k %14,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49000"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49000\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}