Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP) May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek %0,3 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Bu okuma, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde temel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k bazda h\u0131zlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u00e7ekirdek HICP oran\u0131n\u0131n %0,3\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli ivme istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korudu. Veri, ayl\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn Nisan\u2019a k\u0131yasla yatay kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun marjda seyrinde bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret etmedi.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisi ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 ile, temel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu kat\u0131l\u0131k Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) i\u00e7in sorun te\u015fkil ediyor ve enflasyonla m\u00fccadelenin hen\u00fcz bitmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Politikada yak\u0131n vadede belirgin bir g\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklememek gerekir.<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc; burada fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 en son y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,1 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede raporland\u0131. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde %4,5 olarak teyit etti\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da bu bask\u0131y\u0131 besliyor. Bu rakamlar, ECB\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi de\u011ferlendirmesi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ve Ekim ECB toplant\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz indirimlerini fazla agresif fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Faiz swaplar\u0131ndaki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek\u201d politika ger\u00e7ekli\u011fini yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde ayarl\u0131yoruz. EURIBOR bazl\u0131 vadeli kontratlar\u0131n hatal\u0131 fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor ve piyasan\u0131n bu veriyi sindirmesiyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2023 sonlar\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerini yanl\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme olduk\u00e7a benziyor. Erken faiz indirimi senaryosuna oynayanlar, enflasyon beklenenden daha inat\u00e7\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca ciddi kay\u0131plar ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu dersi hat\u0131rlamak ve ayn\u0131 hatay\u0131 yeniden yapmamak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in daha net bir gev\u015feme patikas\u0131na i\u015faret etmesiyle, bunun Euro\u2019nun ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Olas\u0131 politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD paritesinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca politika belirsizli\u011fi artarken Euro Stoxx 50 gibi hisse endekslerinde ima edilen volatilitenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek HICP May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,3\u2019te kald\u0131: hizmet-enflasyonu ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fccretler ECB\u2019yi \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201de itiyor. Piyasa indirimi abart\u0131yor; EURIBOR d\u00fczeltme, EUR\/USD call, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volde straddle f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48996","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48996","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48996"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48996\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48996"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48996"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48996"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}