WTI, piyasalar\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de imzalanmas\u0131 beklenen olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisini de\u011ferlendirmesiyle, \u00c7ar\u015famba Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75,60 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci seansta da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Anla\u015fman\u0131n Tahran\u2019a geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 ekonomik te\u015fvikler sunmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n derhal yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131mas\u0131 bekleniyor. Gemi ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 verileri, \u0130ran ham petrol\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131yan en az \u00fc\u00e7 tankerin bu hafta ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7oktan ge\u00e7ti\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, \u015fu anda bo\u015f olan d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc bir geminin Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ne do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fi bildirildi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan trafi\u011fin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde tamamen normale d\u00f6nebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc bir miktar s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu petrol t\u00fcrleri genelinde fiyatlama yumu\u015fad\u0131; g\u00f6stergeler iskontoya ge\u00e7ti ve k\u0131sa vadeli arz\u0131n gev\u015fedi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Reuters verilerine g\u00f6re Dubai\u2019nin swaplara g\u00f6re primi Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 46 sent iskontoya gerileyerek Ocak\u2019tan bu yana ilk kez contango\u2019ya ge\u00e7ti; spot Umman ve Murban diferansiyelleri de s\u0131ras\u0131yla 67 sent ve 49 sent iskontoya d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Yak\u0131n vadeli kargolar\u0131n ileri vadeli kargolardan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 contango yap\u0131s\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f, siyasi cephede ilerleme olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n Bo\u011faz \u00fczerinden fiziksel ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n baz seviyelerin alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc planlanan ge\u00e7ici ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte, piyasan\u0131n jeopolitik risk primini fiyatlardan \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 sonucu WTI fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 75,60 dolar civar\u0131ndaki mevcut seviye, \u00e7ok yak\u0131nda piyasaya yeni arz gelece\u011fi beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu diplomatik ilerleme, \u015fu anda ham petrol taraf\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli belirleyici konumunda.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n yak\u0131n zamanda g\u00fcnde 1 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ek \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fc absorbe etmesi gerekece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu kayda de\u011fer bir hacim. Bu yaln\u0131zca gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck bir olas\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fil; son Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) raporu da ge\u00e7en hafta 2,1 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu veriler, arz ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla gev\u015fedi\u011fini teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
En net sinyal fiziksel piyasadan geliyor: kilit g\u00f6stergeler contango yap\u0131s\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Yak\u0131n vadeli petrol\u00fcn ileri vadeli teslimata g\u00f6re daha ucuz olmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in iyi arz edildi\u011fini anlat\u0131r. Bunu, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulayan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ay\u0131 sinyali olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde WTI\u2019da ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131k y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. T\u00fcrev stratejilerde ay\u0131 e\u011filimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmal\u0131; put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 veya vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyon kurulmas\u0131 gibi. Yeni arz\u0131n ger\u00e7e\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki tanker ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Anla\u015fma bekleniyor olsa da, sevkiyat kapasitesinin tamamen geri gelmesinde ya\u015fanabilecek sahadaki gecikmeler veya lojistik aksakl\u0131klar k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yaratabilir. Bu da genel e\u011filim a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olsa bile volatilitenin y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca OPEC+\u2019\u0131n verece\u011fi tepkiyi izliyoruz; \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden devreye girmesinin, grubun son \u00fcretim anla\u015fmas\u0131nda muhtemelen tam olarak fiyatlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2023 sonlar\u0131ndaki \u00f6rnekte oldu\u011fu gibi, grup zay\u0131flayan talep veya artan arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 savunmak i\u00e7in \u00fcretimi k\u0131smaya istekli olabildi. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde yeni bir fiyat taban\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan atacaklar\u0131 ad\u0131m kritik olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde r\u00fczg\u00e2r terse d\u00f6nd\u00fc: WTI 75,60 dolarla be\u015finci kez gerilerken, olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla art\u0131rabilir. Dubai\/Umman g\u00f6stergeleri contango\u2019ya d\u00f6nd\u00fc; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47776,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48995","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48995"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48995\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}