{"id":48990,"date":"2026-06-17T10:35:04","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T10:35:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fed-karari-oncesi-geri-cekilen-nzd-usdde-abd-iran-gorusmeleri-volatilite-beklentilerini-artirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T10:35:04","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T10:35:04","slug":"fed-karari-oncesi-geri-cekilen-nzd-usdde-abd-iran-gorusmeleri-volatilite-beklentilerini-artirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-karari-oncesi-geri-cekilen-nzd-usdde-abd-iran-gorusmeleri-volatilite-beklentilerini-artirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi geri \u00e7ekilen NZD\/USD\u2019de ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri volatilite beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

NZD\/USD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 0,5820 civar\u0131na gerileyerek, g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Federal Rezerv (Fed) karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde artan temkinli havayla bir \u00f6nceki seanstaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn ilk politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha \u015fahin bir ton benimseyece\u011fi beklentisiyle pozisyonlanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Parite, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimaline ba\u011fl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndan bir miktar destek buldu. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n daha \u00f6nce \u00e7er\u00e7evenin zaten imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan, Trump\u2019\u0131n planlanandan \u00f6nce bir \u00f6n anla\u015fma a\u00e7\u0131klayabilece\u011fini belirtti. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Seyyed Abbas Araghchi ise nihai ve kapsaml\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de yeni bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme turunu teyit etti. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek cari a\u00e7\u0131k, bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki 0,71 milyar NZD\u2019den 1,01 milyar NZD\u2019ye geni\u015fledi; 1,03 milyar NZD\u2019lik beklentiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni ise Haziran\u2019da 80,4\u2019e gerileyerek 2023\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n

\u00c7at\u0131\u015fan G\u00fc\u00e7ler ve Volatilite Beklentileri<\/h3>\n

NZD\/USD\u2019nin birbirine z\u0131t dinamikler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun belirgin bir belirsizlik yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Potansiyel olarak daha \u015fahin bir Fed, parite \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015ftururken, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli gerek\u00e7esi sunuyor. Bu tablo, piyasalar\u0131n sert bir harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131yla birlikte, bir ayl\u0131k NZD\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin %11,2 primle d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadede oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bug\u00fcn Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve yar\u0131n Yeni Zelanda\u2019dan gelecek kritik 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisi. Ekonomistler, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki zay\u0131f %0,2\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan \u00e7eyreklik bazda yaln\u0131zca %0,1\u2019lik dura\u011fan bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Negatif bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, 0,5800 destek seviyesinin kolayca k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Fed\u2019in beklenen s\u0131k\u0131 tonu da parite i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bar\u0131\u015f Anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan Gelebilecek Yukar\u0131 Y\u00f6n ve Yeni Zelanda G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Bununla birlikte, bar\u0131\u015f m\u00fczakerelerinden kaynaklanan kayda de\u011fer yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski de hesaba katmak gerekiyor. Anla\u015fman\u0131n teyit edilmesi, risk i\u015ftah\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetikleyerek ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini zay\u0131flatabilir ve Kiwi gibi emtia para birimlerini destekleyebilir. Jeopolitik gerilimin azalaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik erken piyasa iyimserli\u011fini yans\u0131tan WTI ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 da bu hafta varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolar civar\u0131na gerileyerek %2 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Yeni Zelanda i\u00e7in altta yatan ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de temkinli duru\u015fu gerekli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Son veriler, \u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,9 ile beklentilerin hafif alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Ayr\u0131ca son Global Dairy Trade (GDT) ihalesinde fiyatlar %1,3 geriledi. Bu geli\u015fmeler, Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n kilit ihracat kalemlerine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131rken NZD\u2019nin temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu kadar keskin bi\u00e7imde z\u0131t kataliz\u00f6rler varken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc basit bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f alm\u0131yoruz. Her iki y\u00f6nde de bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in opsiyon straddle stratejisi kullan\u0131yoruz; yani hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, Fed politikas\u0131 ya da jeopolitik bir k\u0131r\u0131lma kaynakl\u0131 olsun, belirgin bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi NZD\/USD 0,5820\u2019ye gerileyip kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 sildi. Warsh\u2019ten \u015fahin ton beklentisi bask\u0131 kurarken, ABD\u2011\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f ihtimali ralli riski yarat\u0131yor; volatilite zirvede. NZ cari a\u00e7\u0131k artt\u0131, g\u00fcven geriledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47893,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48990\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47893"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}