USD\/JPY, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde, Fed\u2019in yeni Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh liderli\u011finde alaca\u011f\u0131 haziran faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasalar\u0131n beklemeye ge\u00e7mesiyle 160,25 civar\u0131na geriledi. Fed\u2019in faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi beklenirken, y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda ABD faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin sinyaller i\u00e7in politika metni, g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f ekonomik tahminler ve bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n
Japonya taraf\u0131nda ise Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %0,75\u2019ten %1,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltti ve bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Zay\u0131f JPY ve k\u0131smen \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyreden enflasyonun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131 sonras\u0131nda gelen ad\u0131m, yende kayda de\u011fer bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme sa\u011flamad\u0131. Bu durum, Japon otoritelerinin olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesine y\u00f6nelik dikkati canl\u0131 tutarken, analizler de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen para birimi zay\u0131f kal\u0131rsa yetkililer \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,25\u2019e yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi ortamda, bug\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli konumlan\u0131yoruz. Bu seviye kritik; Fed\u2019in yeni \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d duru\u015fu ya yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 ya da geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir. Piyasa, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin ABD faiz patikas\u0131nda net bir sinyal bekliyor.<\/p>\n
BoJ\u2019un d\u00fcn faizi %1,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltmesi yendeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 gidermekte yeterli olmad\u0131 ve do\u011frudan kur m\u00fcdahalesi riskini son derece y\u00fcksek tutuyor. 2024 sonlar\u0131nda parite 160 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda otoritelerin birka\u00e7 kez devreye girdi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu nedenle daha yukar\u0131 hareketleri k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo, riskli olmakla birlikte USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyonu giderek daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan risklerin ikili (ya\/ya da) do\u011fas\u0131 nedeniyle volatilite sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %11,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyre\u011fin %8\u2019lik ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da piyasadaki tedirginli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Sonuca y\u00f6nl\u00fc bahse girmeden her iki y\u00f6nde sert bir hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle stratejileri etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nsel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olanlar i\u00e7in, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) JPY call (USD\/JPY put) opsiyonlar\u0131, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon alman\u0131n bir yolunu sunuyor. Bu opsiyonlar, yendeki ani de\u011ferlenmeden tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle faydalanmay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor. Mevcut y\u00fcksek seviyeler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 155,00\u2019e do\u011fru k\u0131smi bir geri \u00e7ekilme bile bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlarda anlaml\u0131 getiri sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019e ili\u015fkin beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc: Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri bu toplant\u0131da faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131na %95 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor. Ancak piyasa, y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde %40\u2019a kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu oran iki ay \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re belirgin bir gerileme. Yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019ndan gelebilecek \u015fahin bir ton bu e\u011filimi peki\u015ftirerek dolar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden test edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de: USD\/JPY 160,25\u2019e indi. Warsh liderli\u011finde haziran karar\u0131 ve \u201cn\u00f6tr\u201d sinyaller belirleyici. BoJ faizi %1\u2019e \u00e7ekti ama yen zay\u0131f; m\u00fcdahale riski, volatilite stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48983","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48983"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48983\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49802"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}