USD\/CAD, USD\u2019nin bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girmesiyle \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fini sonland\u0131rarak 1,3990 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nman\u0131n azalmas\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131nda ilerleme beklentilerine ba\u011flan\u0131yor. Anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik ivme, ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n planlanandan \u00f6nce bir \u00f6n mutabakat yay\u0131mlayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Seyed Abbas Araghchi ise nihai ve kapsaml\u0131 bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 hedefleyen yeni bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme turunun \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politika toplant\u0131s\u0131na odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, dikkatler Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmeleri i\u00e7in bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrilecek. USD\/CAD\u2019de olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ham petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, daha zay\u0131f petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n CAD \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilir. Ham petrol, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu Cuma \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de ge\u00e7ici bir anla\u015fma imzalayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle geriledi; bu geli\u015fme, anla\u015fma y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girdikten sonra \u0130ran ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yeniden devreye girmesine ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin iyile\u015fmesine zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n USD\/CAD paritesinde birbirine z\u0131t bask\u0131lar yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve belirgin bir y\u00f6n trendinden ziyade oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir anla\u015fma g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi azalt\u0131rken, buna paralel d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flatacakt\u0131r. Bu ortam, do\u011frudan uzun ya da k\u0131sa pozisyonlar yerine, straddle gibi fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejilerine daha uygun hale geliyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en \u00f6nemli unsur ham petrol \u00fczerindeki etkidir; zira enerji \u00fcr\u00fcnleri Kanada\u2019n\u0131n toplam ihracat\u0131n\u0131n %18\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n k\u00fcresel arza g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ekleme ihtimali, WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7ekti; bu ayki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k %8\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131. 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde de benzer bir dinamik g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, piyasa yeni arz\u0131 fiyatlarken anla\u015fma \u00e7evresindeki aylarda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ile USD\/CAD paritesi aras\u0131ndaki tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc negatif korelasyon dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ham petroldeki kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k parite i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir destek taban\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. Bu da USD\/CAD\u2019i agresif \u015fekilde satman\u0131n zararla sonu\u00e7lanabilecek bir i\u015flem olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor; zira Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, d\u00fc\u015fen petrol gelirleriyle h\u0131zla silinebilir. Paritenin 1,3900 seviyesi civar\u0131ndaki desteklere tepkisini izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir g\u00fcndem maddesi; ancak CME vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n faizin sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %98 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131 nedeniyle odak tamamen yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n y\u00f6nlendirmelerine kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle Fed\u2019in daha g\u00fcvercin bir \u00e7izgiye kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair her i\u015faret, genel ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadede Euro veya Japon Yeni gibi emtia ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 olmayan para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolarda sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasada g\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de: USD\/CAD, zay\u0131flayan dolar ve ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f beklentisiyle 1,3990\u2019a indi. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131yor; petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc CAD\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48979","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48979","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48979"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48979\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48979"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48979"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48979"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}