Avustralya\u2019da Westpac\u2019in \u00d6nc\u00fc Endeksi May\u0131s\u2019ta geriledi; ayl\u0131k (m\/m) okuma \u00f6nceki 0,05% seviyesinden 0%\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu hareket, bir \u00f6nceki aydaki m\u00fctevaz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6stergedeki ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son veri, endeksi ay baz\u0131nda yatay b\u0131rak\u0131rken, May\u0131s okumas\u0131n\u0131 Westpac\u2019in bile\u015fik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyallerindeki duraksama ile uyumlu hale getirdi. Ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f kaydedilmemesi, \u00f6nceki 0,05% y\u00fckseli\u015fe k\u0131yasla bir ara verilmi\u015f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik aktiviteye ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc endeksin May\u0131s\u2019ta 0% seviyesinde duraksamas\u0131, Avustralya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirgin bir ivme kayb\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin muhtemelen trendin alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu okuma; ulusal i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte kademeli bi\u00e7imde 4,2%\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi dahil son d\u00f6nemdeki di\u011fer zay\u0131f verileri de teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu yava\u015flama, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) \u00fczerinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f benimsemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Piyasa, bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimini fiyatl\u0131yor olsa da, bu verinin takvimi \u00f6ne \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu hafta itibar\u0131yla faiz swaplar\u0131, Kas\u0131m\u2019a kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %45 olarak ima ediyor; bu oran\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Avustralya dolar\u0131nda zay\u0131flama y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Yava\u015flayan i\u00e7 ekonomi ve daha erken faiz indirimleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, para biriminin cazibesini azalt\u0131yor. Beklenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte vadesi dolacak AUD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi taraf\u0131nda ise S&P\/ASX 200\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek sekt\u00f6rler, faiz indirimi beklentisinden bir miktar destek bulabilse de, genel yava\u015flama \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz bir unsur. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar endeks put opsiyonlar\u0131yla korunma almay\u0131 veya daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi stratejileri kullanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik sinyalin, Avustralya ekonomisinin temel ta\u015flar\u0131ndan olan emtialar \u00fczerinde de do\u011frudan etkileri var. Zay\u0131fl\u0131k, daha yumu\u015fak talebe i\u015faret ediyor; bu da \u00c7in\u2019de in\u015faat faaliyetlerine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ton ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar civar\u0131na gerilemesiyle uyumlu. Malzeme (materials) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde temkinliyiz ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlarken gelir yaratmak amac\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fck madencilik ETF\u2019lerinde para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Westpac \u00d6nc\u00fc Endeksi May\u0131s\u2019ta 0,05%\u2019ten 0%\u2019a indi: Avustralya\u2019da ivme kesiliyor. 2026\u2019da trend alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, RBA\u2019ya g\u00fcvercin bask\u0131 ve erken faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor; AUD zay\u0131flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48977\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47694"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}