{"id":48975,"date":"2026-06-17T06:06:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T06:06:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fedin-sahin-mesajlari-ve-mudahale-riski-gundemdeyken-usd-jpy-cok-on-yillik-zirveye-yakin-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T06:06:50","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T06:06:50","slug":"fedin-sahin-mesajlari-ve-mudahale-riski-gundemdeyken-usd-jpy-cok-on-yillik-zirveye-yakin-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-sahin-mesajlari-ve-mudahale-riski-gundemdeyken-usd-jpy-cok-on-yillik-zirveye-yakin-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in \u015eahin Mesajlar\u0131 ve M\u00fcdahale Riski G\u00fcndemdeyken USD\/JPY \u00c7ok On Y\u0131ll\u0131k Zirveye Yak\u0131n Seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda hafif gerilerken, ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n zirvesine (Nisan sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye) yak\u0131n kald\u0131. Piyasa, g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde sonu\u00e7lanacak iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 beklerken parite 160,50\u2019lik \u201cm\u00fcdahale b\u00f6lgesi\u201dnin alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in, enflasyonun tahmin edilenden daha yap\u0131\u015fkan seyretmesi sonras\u0131 gev\u015feme e\u011filimini geri \u00e7ekecek \u015fekilde metnini ayarlarken faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Politika patikas\u0131na ve bunun ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na etkilerine dair sinyal i\u00e7in g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f projeksiyonlar (dot plot) ile yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019un a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. \u00d6te yandan ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik iyimserlik g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131larken, yeni bir resm\u00ee yen destek hamlesi konu\u015fmalar\u0131 da paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; yen, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc faizleri 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen talep toplamakta zorlan\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 ABD gibi emsallerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in carry trade i\u015flemleri cazibesini koruyor.<\/p>\n

Fed Duru\u015fu ve BOJ Politikas\u0131 Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

USD\/JPY paritesini, onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyrederken g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; h\u00e2len 157,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasa, ge\u00e7en haftaki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etmesini sindirmeye devam ediyor. Bu temel zemin pariteyi destekli tutuyor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in yeni projeksiyonlar\u0131 ya da \u201cdot plot\u201d, y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca bir faiz indirimi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu, Mart ay\u0131nda beklenen \u00fc\u00e7 indirime k\u0131yasla belirgin bir geri \u00e7ekilme. \u201cDaha uzun s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyerek para birimini elde tutmay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n enflasyona ili\u015fkin temkinli tonu da bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, BOJ\u2019un ge\u00e7en haftaki ad\u0131mlar\u0131 yeni destek vermekte s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya ili\u015fkin detaylar\u0131 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131na erteledi. Bu teredd\u00fct, Japonya\u2019da para politikas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik gev\u015fek kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma en net tahvil piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,2 seviyesindeyken, Japonya\u2019daki muadili %1\u2019in alt\u0131nda. 3,2 puan\u0131n \u00fczerindeki bu fark, yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek getirili ABD dolar\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lan carry trade\u2019i besliyor. Bu fark s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e USD\/JPY i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n yukar\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

M\u00fcdahale Riski ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bununla birlikte, parite 160 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken \u00f6zellikle kamu m\u00fcdahalesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinliyiz. Nisan sonu ve May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda bu e\u015fik a\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yetkililerin yeni savunma hamlesi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bu tehdit k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 hareketi muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak ve sert, ani geri \u00e7ekilmelere yol a\u00e7abilecek.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, 160 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi yakalamak i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, s\u00fcrpriz m\u00fcdahaleye ba\u011fl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini de s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak \u015fekilde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Alternatif olarak, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde \u201ctrendin korundu\u011fu\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze dayanarak prim toplamak amac\u0131yla vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir; geri \u00e7ekilmelerin s\u0131\u011f kal\u0131p h\u0131zla al\u0131mla kar\u015f\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CFTC verileri, yen aleyhine b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bask\u0131n trendin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY Asya\u2019da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilse de 160 \u201cm\u00fcdahale b\u00f6lgesi\u201d alt\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. G\u00f6zler FOMC\/dot plot\u2019ta: \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d dolar lehine. BOJ yetersiz; faiz fark\u0131 carry\u2019i besliyor. \u0130ran iyimserli\u011fi dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49801,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48975","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48975"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48975\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}