{"id":48973,"date":"2026-06-17T05:35:53","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T05:35:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/aud-usd-rbanin-sahin-egilimle-faizi-sabit-tutmasinin-ardindan-yukselise-gecti-piyasalar-fed-kararini-ve-abd-iran-gorusmelerini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T05:35:53","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T05:35:53","slug":"aud-usd-rbanin-sahin-egilimle-faizi-sabit-tutmasinin-ardindan-yukselise-gecti-piyasalar-fed-kararini-ve-abd-iran-gorusmelerini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/aud-usd-rbanin-sahin-egilimle-faizi-sabit-tutmasinin-ardindan-yukselise-gecti-piyasalar-fed-kararini-ve-abd-iran-gorusmelerini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"AUD\/USD, RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin e\u011filimle faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti; piyasalar Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) politika duru\u015funu de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyip s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimini korumas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,7070 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. RBA, Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini (Official Cash Rate) %4,35\u2019te sabit tuttu; bu karar, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda art arda gelen \u00fc\u00e7 adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir \u201cbekleme\u201d ad\u0131m\u0131 oldu. Faizler sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa da kurul, hedeflerine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in ilave art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 gerekebilece\u011fini yineledi; daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi ekonomiye yans\u0131d\u0131ktan sonra enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 h\u00e2le gelmesini \u00f6nlemeyi ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de fiyatlamay\u0131 \u015fekillendirdi; olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, daha y\u00fcksek beta para birimlerini destekledi. ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcnden \u00f6nce \u00f6n mutabakat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; Trump daha \u00f6nce anla\u015fman\u0131n zaten imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015fti. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Seyed Abbas Araghchi ise nihai anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik yeni bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme turunun ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. G\u00f6zler daha sonra \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor; politika faizinin %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 beklenirken, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh y\u00f6netiminde verilecek mesajlar i\u00e7in bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n

RBA Politikas\u0131 ve AUD G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son \u201c\u015fahin bekle\u201d hamlesini, Avustralya dolar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye y\u00f6nelik net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. RBA\u2019n\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle son \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE verisinin %3,8\u2019e inat\u00e7\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan, politika faizinin y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde 0,7100 seviyesinin \u00fczerine bir y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle AUD\/USD\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmemize yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik, Fed Karar\u0131 ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi<\/h3>\n

Olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131, piyasaya belirgin bir \u201crisk-on\u201d havas\u0131 getiriyor; bu durum genellikle AUD\u2019yi destekler. Bunu oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; anla\u015fman\u0131n teyit edilmesi h\u00e2linde piyasalar muhtemelen sakinle\u015fecek ve d\u00f6viz dalgalanmalar\u0131 azalacakt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak benzer jeopolitik gerilimlerin azalmas\u0131, risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek varl\u0131klarda ima edilen volatilitede kayda de\u011fer bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcn yapaca\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde olas\u0131 dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131y\u0131z. Piyasa \u201cfaiz sabit\u201d senaryosunu fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak as\u0131l odak, \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7en haftaki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporunda i\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n beklentileri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtacak \u015fekilde yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n tonunda olacak. Bu belirsizli\u011fi i\u015flem stratejisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in, bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda hangi y\u00f6ne olursa olsun anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketinden getiri elde etmeyi hedefleyen USD ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 paritelerde uzun straddle opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen bir AUD ile potansiyel olarak yumu\u015fayan bir USD\u2019nin birle\u015fimi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n %4,35\u2019lik faizi ile ABD\u2019nin %3,75\u2019lik faizi aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131, parite i\u00e7in temel bir destek unsuru (tailwind) sa\u011fl\u0131yor. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 60 baz puan olan bu fark\u0131n, Fed\u2019in daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etmesi durumunda daha da a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz; bu da AUD\/USD\u2019de uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ek olarak destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eahin RBA ve risk-on r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 AUD\/USD\u2019yi 0,7070\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131! \u0130ran-ABD anla\u015fmas\u0131 beklentisi ve Fed mesajlar\u0131 dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir; 0,7100 \u00fczeri hedef, opsiyonlarda call\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48973","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48973","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48973"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48973\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48973"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48973"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48973"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}