Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f mal ticareti dengesi May\u0131s ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6nd\u00fc; \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki \u00a5236,4 milyar fazla seviyesinden \u00a5-90,4 milyara geriledi. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, Nisan ay\u0131ndaki pozitif dengenin ard\u0131ndan d\u0131\u015f ticarette mal taraf\u0131ndaki pozisyonun tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s verisi, ay boyunca net ticaret sonucunun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na; dengenin fazla konumundan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa ge\u00e7ti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. D\u00fczeltilmi\u015f bazda bozulma, g\u00f6stergenin \u00a5236,4 milyardan \u00a5-90,4 milyara inmesiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Beklenmedik \u015fekilde \u00a590,4 milyarl\u0131k ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na ge\u00e7ilmesi, Japon Yeni a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan net bir negatif sinyal. Bizce bu veri, para birimindeki mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini teyit ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda JPY \u00fczerinde, \u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, artan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyede tutmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) temkinli kalmas\u0131yla belirginle\u015fen faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 daha da art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bunu, opsiyon veya vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri \u00fczerinden USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmak ya da mevcut pozisyonlara ek yapmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7evrim i\u00e7i veriler USD\/JPY\u2019nin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 165 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor; bu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerin test edilmesi i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r olabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda ise zay\u0131f yen, genellikle Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in destekleyici bir unsur oldu\u011fundan Nikkei 225\u2019i cazip k\u0131labilir. \u015eimdilik k\u00fcresel talepte yava\u015flama endi\u015felerinin, kur etkisi taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle Nikkei 225 vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m taraf\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n Japon \u015firketlerinin k\u00e2r hanesine net bir katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son k\u00fcresel istatistikler, bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n kilit s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisinde enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; WTI ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyor. Bu tablo, 2022\u2019de y\u00fcksek enerji ithalat maliyetleri ve zay\u0131f yenin Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini rekor a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 dinami\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu da sorunun yap\u0131sal oldu\u011funa ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede d\u00fczelmesinin zor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu verinin, BoJ\u2019u daha da temkinli kalmaya zorlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; k\u0131sa vadede anlaml\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 h\u00e2le getirece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in fiili s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yerine s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmeyi tercih etmesi muhtemel. Bu politika k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131, yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz i\u00e7in istikrarl\u0131 bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f: Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f mal ticareti May\u0131s\u2019ta \u00a5236,4 milyar fazladan \u00a590,4 milyar a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu, yeni zay\u0131flat\u0131rken USD\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 riski, Nikkei\u2019de ihracat\u00e7\u0131 deste\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131yor. BoJ temkinli kalabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47813,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48972","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48972\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47813"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}