EUR\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,1610 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, piyasalar g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed karar\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD May\u0131s Perakende Sat\u0131\u015f verisini bekledi. Fed\u2019in Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %3,50-%3,75 band\u0131nda sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor; oda\u011f\u0131n, politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin sinyaller i\u00e7in bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na kayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %42,6 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; \u015fahin bir ton de\u011fi\u015fimi ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyip parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de oda\u011f\u0131n merkezinde kalmaya devam etti. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 bir anla\u015fmaya ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylemler, euro dahil risk varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in destekleyici g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Washington\u2019da JD Vance, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6n anla\u015fmay\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcnden \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Fed\u2019in %2 enflasyon hedefi ve fiyat istikrar\u0131 ile tam istihdamdan olu\u015fan ikili mandas\u0131 g\u00fcndemdeki yerini korurken; niceliksel gev\u015feme (QE) ve niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (QT) gibi ara\u00e7lar likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirerek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebiliyor.<\/p>\n
Federal Reserve bug\u00fcn politika faizini %3,50-%3,75 band\u0131nda sabit tutarken, odak tamamen ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeye kayd\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fahinydi; siyasi bask\u0131ya ra\u011fmen enflasyonla m\u00fccadelenin bitmedi\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Bunun, piyasan\u0131n Washington\u2019\u0131n talepleriyle bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sindirmesiyle birlikte oynak bir zemine i\u015faret etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed kaynakl\u0131 bu belirsizlik, oynakl\u0131k bazl\u0131 t\u00fcrev stratejileri i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Son ABD verileri \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,4\u2019te kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek Fed\u2019in sert duru\u015funu destekledi. EUR\/USD paritesinde 3 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck say\u0131labilecek %6,1 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, iki y\u00f6nde de belirgin bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa art\u0131k Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta fiyatlanan %42,6 seviyesinden keskin bir art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu \u015fahin yeniden fiyatlama ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir taban olu\u015fturmal\u0131; net bir kataliz\u00f6r olmadan dolara kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak riskli hale geliyor. EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1650 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeleri, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolardan fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlar ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in kullanaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
En b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik unsuru, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 anla\u015fma olmaya devam ediyor. B\u00f6yle bir \u201crisk-on\u201d geli\u015fmesi muhtemelen dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r ve h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 81 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sert \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirerek euroda bir ralliyi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu jeopolitik geli\u015fmenin ikili (binary) niteli\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) EUR\/USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) sat\u0131n almak, s\u00fcrpriz bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor. Teyit edilmi\u015f bir anla\u015fma, paritenin 1,1700 direncinin \u00fczerine h\u0131zla ge\u00e7mesine yol a\u00e7abilir. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi ve g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde ise bu strateji a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca t\u00fcketicinin sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015f verisini izliyoruz. Nisan verileri beklentilerin \u00fczerinde %0,4 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etmi\u015fti; bir ba\u015fka g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k zay\u0131f bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, faiz indirimi beklentilerini yeniden alevlendirerek dolar \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler Fed ve ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015f\u2019ta: EUR\/USD 1,1610\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u015eahin Fed dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip bask\u0131 kurabilir; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz anla\u015fmas\u0131 risk-on ile euroyu ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48971","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48971","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48971"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48971\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48971"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48971"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48971"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}