Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek makine sipari\u015fleri Nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %15,6 artt\u0131 ve piyasa beklentisi olan %9,3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sonu\u00e7, ay boyunca \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sermaye harcamas\u0131 (capex) talebine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veriler, uzla\u015f\u0131 tahminine k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel sipari\u015f ivmesine i\u015faret ederken, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tahminin 6,3 y\u00fczde puan \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00c7ekirdek makine sipari\u015fleri, Japonya\u2019da \u015firket yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filimleri i\u00e7in yayg\u0131n bi\u00e7imde \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131 makine sipari\u015fleri verisi beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde gelerek y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %15,6 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveninin ve planlanan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa dair net bir sinyal olup, ekonomi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergedir. Bunu, \u015firketler Japonya\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n teyidi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sermaye harcamas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, \u00f6zellikle Nikkei 225\u2019in 41.000 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00f6nemde, Japon hisse senetlerini do\u011frudan destekliyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2017\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen benzer h\u0131zlanan yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6nemleri, anlaml\u0131 piyasa y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Bu nedenle olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl vadeli Nikkei 225 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Altta yatan ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, \u00f6zellikle May\u0131s ay\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun %2,3 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) \u00fczerinde de bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir. BoJ temkinli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, bu yeni veri y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde daha \u015fahin bir ileti\u015fim veya ad\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yen senaryosuna oynayarak USD\/JPY paritesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131, muhtemelen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 yoluyla, de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrprizin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hem Nikkei hem de JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu, \u00f6rne\u011fin Nikkei\u2019de vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put spread satarak prim satmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Piyasa, bu e\u011filimin daha fazla teyidi i\u00e7in Temmuz ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak 2. \u00e7eyrek Tankan i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 anketine kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a hassas olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek makine sipari\u015fleri Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k %15,6 artarak beklenti %9,3\u2019\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131; capex ivmesi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Nikkei\u2019ye destek, BoJ\u2019a \u015fahin bask\u0131 do\u011fabilir; yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenir, opsiyon volatilitesi y\u00fckselir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47782,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48969\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47782"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}