Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithalat\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %12,5 artt\u0131 ve piyasa beklentisi olan %12,8\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00dc\u00e7 ondal\u0131k puanl\u0131k bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc sapma, beklentilere k\u0131yasla ithalat kaynakl\u0131 i\u00e7 talepte biraz daha yumu\u015fak bir seyre i\u015faret ederken, ithalat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde pozitif kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ile tahmin aras\u0131ndaki fark d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve ticaret ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin genel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6n, ihracat ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesinin i\u00e7 talep ve kur hareketleriyle birlikte nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ithalat verisine bak\u0131yoruz: y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %12,5 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u00e7 talebe i\u015faret etse de, %12,8\u2019lik beklentinin hafif alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli. Bu durum, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (BoJ) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kayda de\u011fer bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 ertelemek i\u00e7in daha fazla gerek\u00e7e sunuyor. Temkinli bir BoJ, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc\u2014faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131\u2014peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Faizleri %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde tutan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seviyelerde kalan BoJ aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131, yenin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeye devam ediyor. Bu veri noktas\u0131 anlat\u0131y\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor; yen fonlamal\u0131 carry trade i\u015flemlerini h\u00e2l\u00e2 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunu, USD\/JPY paritesinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; BoJ\u2019nin eylemsiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nceki y\u0131llarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 160 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket hedeflenebilir.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f yen, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u00e2rlar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fi\u015firdi\u011fi i\u00e7in ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Nikkei 225 endeksi i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir destek unsurudur. Tarihsel olarak, 2023-2024 d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi yenin de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi d\u00f6nemler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Nikkei performans\u0131yla ili\u015fkilendi. Bu ili\u015fkiyi de\u011ferlendirmek ad\u0131na Nikkei 225 vadeli kontratlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden pozisyon art\u0131rmay\u0131 veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread kurgular\u0131 ile maruziyet eklemeyi planl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ithalat verisi piyasa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir \u201c\u015fok\u201d niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, tek ba\u015f\u0131na z\u0131mni volatilitede belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama beklemiyoruz. Pozisyonlanmam\u0131z daha \u00e7ok bu verinin sessizce g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi mevcut trendi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye dayan\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemlerde stop-loss, opsiyonlarda ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131-risk yap\u0131s\u0131 ile pozisyon y\u00f6netimi yapaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s ithalat\u0131 %12,5 artarak beklentinin hafif alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; BoJ\u2019un s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 ertelemesi anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Zay\u0131f yen carry trade\u2019i, USD\/JPY\u2019de 160 hedefini ve Nikkei\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47801,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48968"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48968\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}