Japonya\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s ay\u0131 mal ticareti dengesi \u00a5378,7 milyar a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Bu sonu\u00e7, piyasadaki \u00a5564,6 milyar a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisinden daha iyi gelerek ay genelinde ihracat ile ithalat aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha dar oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda son veri, net ticaretin d\u0131\u015f talep \u00fczerindeki negatif etkisinin tahmin edilenden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Rakamlar, May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin toplam mal ticareti dengesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve ticaretin yak\u0131n vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in daha sa\u011flam bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s ay\u0131 mal ticareti a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti: \u00a5-564,6 milyar tahmine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00a5-378,7 milyar. Bu tablo ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu bir sinyal veriyor; ya ihracat\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fine ya da ithalat maliyetlerinin geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu verinin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca Japon yeni i\u00e7in altta yatan bir destek sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu rapor \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 157 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6ren USD\/JPY kurunda olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) aras\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 faiz fark\u0131 yeni zay\u0131f tutsa da, pozitif yurti\u00e7i veriler alg\u0131da de\u011fi\u015fim i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r olabilir. Bu nedenle, yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine oynayacak \u015fekilde Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Nikkei 225 cephesinde tablo klasik bir ikilemi yans\u0131t\u0131yor; zira daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yen, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir. Endeks 41.000\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyrederek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir performans g\u00f6sterdi; ancak h\u0131zl\u0131 bir kur de\u011ferlenmesi bu momentumu kesintiye u\u011fratabilir. Bu iki kuvvetin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla hisse piyasas\u0131 volatilitesinde art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha yak\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, iyile\u015fen ticaret dengesi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00fcresel talep taraf\u0131ndan desteklendi; otomobil ve yar\u0131 iletken ekipman\u0131 ihracat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde artt\u0131. Bu, kur bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen Japonya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerinin ana faaliyet dinamiklerinin temelde sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, geni\u015f endekse kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sipari\u015f birikimine sahip ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan e\u015fle\u015ftirilmi\u015f i\u015flem (pair trade) f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, yende h\u0131zl\u0131 bir %5 de\u011ferlenme \u00e7o\u011fu zaman izleyen \u00e7eyrekte Nikkei\u2019de %3-4\u2019l\u00fck bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyle e\u015fle\u015fti. Bu emsal ve \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller do\u011frultusunda, piyasa belirsizli\u011finden faydalanan stratejilere de bak\u0131yoruz. Belirli bir y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan beklenen volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015flemlemek i\u00e7in Nikkei 225 vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde straddle al\u0131m\u0131 etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz daralan Japon ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 (\u00a5378,7 mlr; beklenti \u00a5564,6) yene destek sinyali veriyor. USD\/JPY\u2019de geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7in put opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yen Nikkei\u2019de volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir, straddle\/pair trade \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47797,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48967","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48967"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48967\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47797"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}