Alt\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; XAU\/USD, sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeyi hedefleyen ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7eve anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en haftaki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden toparlanarak 4.335 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan ve k\u0131sa vadeli fiyatlamaya y\u00f6n vermesi beklenen ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz karar\u0131na kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Washington ile Tahran, ge\u00e7ici bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 imzalamaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; kapsaml\u0131 anla\u015fman\u0131n ise \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019deki imza t\u00f6reni \u00f6ncesinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yay\u0131mlanabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. \u00d6te yandan ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve anla\u015fmay\u0131 tamamlanm\u0131\u015f bir mutabakat olarak nitelendirdi. Enerji ve enflasyon \u015fokunun hafiflemesi faiz beklentilerine de yans\u0131d\u0131: CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en haftaki yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 seviyesinden %58\u2019e geriledi. Fed\u2019in Haziran\u2019da politikay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek federal fon hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %3,50-%3,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, piyasalar Kevin Warsh\u2019tan gelecek sinyaller i\u00e7in bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izleyecek.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7er\u00e7evenin olu\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte piyasa dinamiklerinde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn bu y\u0131l ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesiyle h\u0131zlanan petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, piyasalar\u0131 saran enflasyon endi\u015felerini hafifletiyor. Bu ortam, gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.335 dolar civar\u0131nda destek bulmas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm dikkat \u015fimdi Fed\u2019in bug\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerde verece\u011fi karara \u00e7evrildi. Piyasa beklentileri \u015fimdiden yeniden fiyatland\u0131; May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son T\u00dcFE verisinin enflasyonun %2,8\u2019e so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6stermesiyle Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %58\u2019e geriledi. Bunun bir f\u0131rsat yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; Fed, daha \u00f6nce \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fmeler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasa korkusundaki gerilemeden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. VIX endeksinin 12,5 civar\u0131nda iki y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemesiyle, volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ya da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilitenin devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik opsiyon stratejileriyle uygulanabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n cephesinde ise hik\u00e2ye jeopolitik riskten korunma arac\u0131ndan faizlere duyarl\u0131 bir enstr\u00fcmana do\u011fru kay\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in art\u0131k agresif \u015fekilde faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131, getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 (alt\u0131n gibi) daha cazip hale getiriyor. Fed\u2019in g\u00fcvercin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc teyit etmesi halinde ek bir ralliye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 1991\u2019de Birinci K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve ard\u0131ndan gelen hisse rallisine benziyor. Hisse piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in benzer bir \u201cbar\u0131\u015f temett\u00fcs\u00fc\u201d bekliyoruz; \u00f6zellikle y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinden olumsuz etkilenen sekt\u00f6rlerde. Bu nedenle, ula\u015ft\u0131rma veya t\u00fcketici odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak ihtiyatl\u0131 bir hamle olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bar\u0131\u015f umudu piyasay\u0131 sarst\u0131: ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle alt\u0131n 4.335 dolarda g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken petrol 85\u2019in alt\u0131na indi. Enflasyon endi\u015fesi azal\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler Fed faiz karar\u0131, y\u00f6nlendirme ve volatilite stratejilerinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48965"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48965\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}