Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek cari i\u015flemler dengesi 1,01 milyar dolar a\u00e7\u0131k verdi; bu rakam, piyasan\u0131n 1,03 milyar dolarl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k beklentisinin bir miktar alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Sonu\u00e7, \u00e7eyreklik bazda konsens\u00fcse g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir pozitif s\u00fcrprize i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Veri, 1\u00c7\u2019de analistlerin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne k\u0131yasla d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na net \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n marjinal \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederken, cari denge a\u00e7\u0131k vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ilave bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m payla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Beklentiden bir miktar daha iyi gelen bu cari denge verisi, Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir destek unsuru olu\u015fturuyor. \u00dclkenin d\u0131\u015f pozisyonunun piyasan\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek, altta yatan baz\u0131 ekonomik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimaline pozisyon almak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli NZD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 stratejisini destekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Veri, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) politika faizini (Official Cash Rate) mevcut %5,50 seviyesinden indirmek i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede bir bask\u0131 hissetmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Son \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm itibar\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %3,8 seviyesinde seyrederken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u0131\u015f denge verisi bankaya \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumak i\u00e7in daha fazla alan tan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 ayda faiz indirim beklentilerinin fazla agresif oldu\u011funa oynayarak k\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz \u00f6demeyi (pay fixed) de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n
Daha geni\u015f perspektiften bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu iyile\u015fme; son Global Dairy Trade (GDT) ihale verilerine g\u00f6re, y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ba\u015fl\u0131ca s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. Bu e\u011filim \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla para birimini destekliyor. Tarihsel olarak, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ticaret dengesi Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n Avustralya dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda (\u00e7apraz kur) g\u00f6rece daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu nedenle s\u00f6z konusu pariteyi yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yeni Zelanda 1\u00c7 cari a\u00e7\u0131k 1,01 milyar $ ile beklentiden iyi geldi: NZD\u2019ye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek. RBNZ\u2019nin %5,50 faizde \u015fahin kalma alan\u0131 art\u0131yor; call opsiyonu ve pay-fixed swap stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47820,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48963","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48963","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48963"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48963\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47820"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48963"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48963"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48963"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}