USD\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasalar Federal Rezerv\u2019in para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 beklerken y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; toplant\u0131 da seans s\u0131ras\u0131nda ba\u015flad\u0131. Parite, yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 160,47 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale riskinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrediyordu. Fiyat hareketi ge\u00e7en haftadan bu yana 159,50\u2019den toparland\u0131; ancak devam eden m\u00fcdahale endi\u015feleri nedeniyle y\u00fckseli\u015f ivme kazanmakta zorland\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI), y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimli bir momentum zemininin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etmeye devam etti.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), beklendi\u011fi \u00fczere faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; ancak yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmedi. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde 160,50 diren\u00e7 olarak izleniyor ve bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde hareket, 161,00 seviyesi g\u00fcndeme gelmeden \u00f6nce y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana (YTD) zirve olan 160,73\u2019e alan a\u00e7abilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise 160,00\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir gerileme, oda\u011f\u0131 159,50\u2019ye; ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019ya (SMA) 159,00 ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya 158,02\u2019ye \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum ile Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesine ili\u015fkin somut risk aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu gerilim, y\u00fckselen opsiyon volatilitesine yans\u0131yor: bir ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite %12 seviyesinde; bu oran ge\u00e7en ay g\u00f6r\u00fclen %8 seviyelerine k\u0131yasla belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama. Bu durum piyasan\u0131n sert bir harekete fiyatlama yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201cuzun volatilite\u201d stratejilerini cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki %3,5\u2019lik faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n temel belirleyici unsur olarak bask\u0131n kalaca\u011f\u0131na inananlar i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 161,00\u2019in \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmaya maruz kalma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc RSI momentumu, m\u00fcdahale korkular\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmeler yaratabilse bile altta yatan trendin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam etti\u011fini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Parite, yetkililerin daha \u00f6nce harekete ge\u00e7ti\u011fi b\u00f6lgenin derinlerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, ani bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe de haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmak gerekiyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f, BoJ m\u00fcdahale etti\u011finde hareketin h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert olabildi\u011fini; 2022 m\u00fcdahalelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere \u00e7o\u011fu zaman tek bir g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 3-5 yenlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, maliyet etkin bir hedge olarak ya da bu senaryoya do\u011frudan spek\u00fclatif bir bahis \u015feklinde, \u201czarar-d\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Herhangi bir hareketin zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131n belirsiz oldu\u011funu kabul ederek, uzun straddle stratejisinin temkinli bir tercih oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erir ve bizi iki y\u00f6nden birinde \u00f6nemli bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan faydalanacak \u015fekilde konumland\u0131r\u0131r. Fed karar\u0131 yukar\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in potansiyel bir kataliz\u00f6r olurken, m\u00fcdahale riski de sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in kataliz\u00f6r sa\u011flayabilece\u011finden, bu strateji daha y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 iki sonucu da kapsar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed \u00f6ncesi USD\/JPY 160,47\u2019de: BoJ faiz art\u0131rd\u0131 ama yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmedi; 160,50\u2013160,73 diren\u00e7. M\u00fcdahale riskiyle z\u0131mni volatilite %12\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; call\/put ve straddle stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47761,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48961","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48961","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48961"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48961\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47761"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}