USD\/CHF Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci seansta da geriledi ancak parite \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran genel ABD dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen haftan\u0131n dip seviyesi 0,7921\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutundu. Parite 0,7933 seviyesinde, %0,16 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken; bask\u0131n\u0131n, dolar\u0131n daha zay\u0131f petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla olan korelasyonu ve Federal Reserve\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin azalmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite 0,8000 civar\u0131nda ivme kaybetmesinin ard\u0131ndan n\u00f6tr ila hafif yukar\u0131 e\u011filimli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor; ancak RSI zay\u0131fl\u0131yor ve oda\u011f\u0131 0,7906\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, 0,7878 civar\u0131ndaki ters omuz-ba\u015f-omuz formasyonu boyun \u00e7izgisine ve ard\u0131ndan 0,7864\u2019teki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya i\u015faret eder; yukar\u0131da ise 0,7968 \u00fczeri bir hareket 0,7976 ve 0,8000 hedeflerini, ard\u0131ndan 0,8042 ve 0,8100 seviyelerini g\u00fcndeme getirir. Spot hareketlerde CHF, JPY kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimi olurken; \u0131s\u0131 haritas\u0131 USD\u2019nin EUR kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,15 geriledi\u011fini ve JPY kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,08 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini, CHF\u2019nin USD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 %0,17 ve JPY\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 %0,24 de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Frank 2011-2015 d\u00f6neminde euroya sabitlenmi\u015fti ve tavan\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 %20\u2019yi a\u015fan bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi tetiklemi\u015fti; SNB politikas\u0131 enflasyonu %2\u2019nin alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 hedefliyor ve y\u0131lda d\u00f6rt kez toplan\u0131yor; EUR-CHF korelasyonunun ise %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/CHF paritesinin 0,7906 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in kritik bir karar noktas\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Dolardaki bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k k\u0131smen, May\u0131s ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin %2,8 ile gelmesi ve Federal Reserve\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesine y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltmas\u0131yla besleniyor. \u015eimdilik bu durum parite i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir duru\u015fu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 0,7906 seviyesinin alt\u0131na kararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde k\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde put opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu b\u00f6lgenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 daha fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum sinyali verece\u011finden, bir sonraki destek alan\u0131na do\u011fru hareketi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7875 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 putlar cazip bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. Bu strateji, mevcut sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131ndan faydalan\u0131rken riski de tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket potansiyelini art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur, gelecek hafta yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) politika toplant\u0131s\u0131. Son d\u00f6nemde \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonunun %1,9 seviyesinde, SNB hedeflerine yak\u0131n seyretmesiyle piyasa daha \u015fahin bir ton fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da frang\u0131 daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Y\u00f6n konusunda karars\u0131z olanlar i\u00e7in straddle gibi k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite stratejilerini g\u00fcndeme getiren bir ortam olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, alttaki yukar\u0131 e\u011filimin g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemesi gerekiyor ve mevcut seviyelerden bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi belirgin bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak duruyor. USD\/CHF\u2019nin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirip 0,7968 zirvesinin \u00fczerine yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde bunu call opsiyon almak i\u00e7in bir tetik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunda birincil hedef psikolojik 0,8000 seviyesi olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman \u00f6zelli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131r; bu \u00f6zellik, daha geni\u015f piyasa belirsizli\u011finin yeniden y\u00fckselmesi halinde devreye girebilir. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/CHF\u2019te bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin SNB toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fi, \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n ise %5,8 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve risk y\u00f6netimi ya da sonuca y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 USD\/CHF\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor: 0,7921 \u00fcst\u00fc tutunma kritik. 0,7906 (200G SMA) alt\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 0,7875\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir; SNB \u00f6ncesi volatilite y\u00fckseldi, 0,7968 \u00fczeri tepkiyle 0,8000 hedeflenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48959"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48959\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}