ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak ilk Federal Rezerv (Fed) faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasalar bekle-g\u00f6r modundayken, daha zay\u0131f bir e\u011filimle 99,50 civar\u0131nda seyretti. EUR\/USD, euronun y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle 1,1610\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; GBP\/USD ise k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 1,3440\u2019\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3430 civar\u0131nda tutundu. USD\/JPY, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faizi %0,75\u2019ten %1,00\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesine ra\u011fmen 160,40 yak\u0131n\u0131nda kald\u0131; yenin tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131 \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc banka tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesinde kademeli duru\u015funu korudu. AUD\/USD, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) politika faizini %4,35\u2019te sabit tutarken \u015fahin e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesinin ard\u0131ndan 0,7070 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti.<\/p>\n
Emtialarda WTI %4\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 77,10 dolara gerilerken, alt\u0131n Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 4.340 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Veri ve etkinlik takviminde Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta May\u0131s ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE, \u00dcFE ve Perakende Fiyat Endeksi; Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde May\u0131s HICP; Yeni Zelanda\u2019da 1\u00c7 GSYH yer al\u0131yor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc SNB g\u00fcncellemeleri ve faiz karar\u0131, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam verileri ve BoE karar\u0131 ile ABD i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve Philadelphia Fed anketi izlenecek; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Almanya \u00dcFE, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve Kanada perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. WTI, dolar cinsinden fiyatlanan ABD \u00fcretimi hafif, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc bir ham petrold\u00fcr; fiyatlar arz-talep dinamikleri, API ve EIA stok raporlar\u0131 (yakla\u015f\u0131k %75 oran\u0131nda, %1 band\u0131nda birbiriyle uyumlu) ve 12 \u00fcyenin belirledi\u011fi OPEC \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131 ile OPEC+ kapsam\u0131nda OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 on \u00fclkenin katk\u0131s\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan \u015fekillenir.<\/p>\n
Yeni bir ba\u015fkan d\u00f6nemindeki ilk Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde piyasan\u0131n tedirgin duru\u015fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadede en belirgin ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin artan volatilite oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha temkinli bir tonu fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da maj\u00f6r paritelerde olas\u0131 sert hareketi iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu belirsizlik, 2023 ve 2024 boyunca Fed y\u00f6nlendirmesinin h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen piyasa savrulmalar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni cephesindeki tablo, piyasan\u0131n tekil politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131ndan ziyade faiz farklar\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 net \u015fekilde g\u00f6steriyor. BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen, iki y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir ana tema olan ABD-Japonya tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck makas dolar\u0131 desteklemeye devam ediyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin tarihsel olarak Japon muadilinin 300 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir spread ile seyretti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, put opsiyonlar\u0131 veya vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden yen satman\u0131n (short Yen) trendi takip eden uygulanabilir bir i\u015flem olmaya devam etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.340 dolar \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, bize g\u00f6re uzun vadeli kritik bir g\u00f6sterge; para birimlerinde de\u011fer a\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 (debasement) endi\u015felerinin ve kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu seviye, hedefin \u00fczerinde seyreden enflasyonun y\u0131llar s\u00fcren etkisi ve kamu borcundaki \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde makul bir sonu\u00e7; ABD ulusal borcu 2024\u2019te 34 trilyon dolar e\u015fi\u011fini zaten a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Dolardaki bu geri \u00e7ekilmeyi, uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla alt\u0131n uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kullanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k WTI ham petroldeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, k\u00fcresel ekonomik talebe ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ve \u015fu a\u015famada arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerden gelen son imalat PMI verileri kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde zorlanarak bu talep kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 besledi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftal\u0131k EIA stok raporlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f daha g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, ilave fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynama amac\u0131yla put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ve Avrupa\u2019dan gelecek yo\u011fun veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve art arda merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 ile d\u00f6viz \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda belirgin fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u00d6zellikle yakla\u015fan \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) karar\u0131, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verilerinin s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde GBP \u00e7aprazlar\u0131nda sert hareketler yaratabilir. Beklenen volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 net risk tan\u0131m\u0131yla i\u015flem yapmak ad\u0131na EUR\/GBP gibi paritelerde k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlara bakarak pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar Fed\u2019in Warsh d\u00f6nemindeki ilk faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi bekle-g\u00f6r modunda: DXY 99,50\u2019ye zay\u0131f, euro\/dolar 1,1610 \u00fcst\u00fc. BoJ faiz art\u0131rd\u0131, yen tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. WTI %4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, alt\u0131n 4.340 \u00fcst\u00fcnde; volatilite ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48958","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48958","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48958"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48958\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48958"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48958"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48958"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}