{"id":48957,"date":"2026-06-17T01:34:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T01:34:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fed-tahminleri-ve-warshun-basin-toplantisi-oncesinde-abd-iran-ateskesi-ve-petroldeki-sert-dususun-destegiyle-altin-yukseldi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T01:34:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T01:34:34","slug":"fed-tahminleri-ve-warshun-basin-toplantisi-oncesinde-abd-iran-ateskesi-ve-petroldeki-sert-dususun-destegiyle-altin-yukseldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-tahminleri-ve-warshun-basin-toplantisi-oncesinde-abd-iran-ateskesi-ve-petroldeki-sert-dususun-destegiyle-altin-yukseldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed tahminleri ve Warsh\u2019un bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve petroldeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn deste\u011fiyle alt\u0131n y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,81 y\u00fckseldi; XAU\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.306 dolarl\u0131k dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.344 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc imzalanmas\u0131 beklenen ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelerek enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafifletti ve dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), faizleri sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 ve Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti\u2019ni (SEP) yay\u0131mlamas\u0131 beklenen iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck toplant\u0131s\u0131na ba\u015flad\u0131; karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeni ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh ilk bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczenleyecek. Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131, %80 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faizde de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklerken, %20 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131. ADP\u2019nin d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131nda istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 25,5 bin olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ferek \u00f6nceki 29 bin seviyesinden geriledi; daha zay\u0131f ABD verileri de genel havay\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n

Gerileyen tahvil getirileri k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131na talebi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %4,484\u2019e inerken, Dolar Endeksi %0,12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,54\u2019e geriledi. Di\u011fer tarafta RBA faizleri sabit tuttu ancak enflasyonun h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 halinde ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali verdi. BoJ ise, Ba\u015fkan Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n hastaneye kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, yol haritas\u0131 belirlemeden faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde diren\u00e7 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 4.400 dolar b\u00f6lgesinde; ard\u0131ndan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.458 dolar, 4.500 dolar ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.571 dolar izleniyor. Destekler ise 4.300 dolar, sonras\u0131nda 4.250 dolar, 4.200 dolar ve 4.023 dolar seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n

\n

Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131 ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 Politikas\u0131n\u0131n Alt\u0131n \u00dczerindeki Etkisi<\/h3>\n

ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme. Bu durum enflasyon beklentilerini yumu\u015fatt\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak bu ortam, alt\u0131n gibi faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in giderek daha elveri\u015fli hale geliyor.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda; \u00f6zellikle de yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ilk bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. Piyasa g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u015fahin bir dil h\u0131zl\u0131 bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7abilir. Beklenen sonuca g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131rken s\u00fcrpriz ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Son veriler enflasyonun gev\u015fedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor; son T\u00dcFE raporu y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %2,8\u2019e do\u011fru \u0131l\u0131mlamaya i\u015faret etti. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra WTI ham petrol\u00fcn son bir ayda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar \u00fczerinden 78 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesi, Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201de ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7eyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. CME FedWatch Tool da bunu yans\u0131t\u0131yor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu anda %25\u2019in alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

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Opsiyon Stratejileri ve Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n

Alt\u0131nda olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.400 dolar civar\u0131ndaki kilit direncini a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli sunarken, maksimum riskimizi de net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131ml\u0131yor. Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda trendin olu\u015fmas\u0131na zaman tan\u0131mak i\u00e7in vade olarak temmuz sonu veya a\u011fustos vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle BoJ gibi di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir \u00e7izgiye kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda politika s\u00fcrprizi riskini de y\u00f6netmeliyiz. Fed\u2019den beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015f gelmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in tahvil ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alabiliriz. \u015eahin bir s\u00fcrpriz, Hazine tahvili getirilerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramaya ve tahvil fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131ndan, bu put\u2019lar k\u00e2ra ge\u00e7erek ana alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131zdaki baz\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 telafi edebilir.<\/p>\n

Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamayla \u00e7ak\u0131\u015fan 4.400 dolar seviyesinde net bir m\u00fccadele alan\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu b\u00f6lgenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, ilave al\u0131mlar\u0131 tetikleyerek alt\u0131n\u0131 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama civar\u0131ndaki 4.458 dolardaki bir sonraki diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Stratejimiz bu olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma senaryosu etraf\u0131nda \u015fekilleniyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD makro verilerini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; \u00f6zellikle de yakla\u015fan Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verilerini. Bu raporlarda zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Fed\u2019in beklemede kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc daha da peki\u015ftirerek alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131na destek sa\u011flayabilir. Ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret eden her sinyal ise bu duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n %0,81 y\u00fckselirken g\u00f6zler Fed\u2019de: ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi petrol\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp enflasyonu yumu\u015fatt\u0131, dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131. 4.400 dolar kritik diren\u00e7; s\u00fcrpriz \u015fahin mesaj sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47690,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48957"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48957\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}