SpaceX\u2019teki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan, ima edilen volatilitenin (implied volatility) %150\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu seviye dot-com balonunu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu durum, 150 kat sat\u0131\u015f \u00e7arpan\u0131yla i\u015flem g\u00f6ren de\u011ferlemeden sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak ad\u0131na koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 pahal\u0131 ama potansiyel olarak gerekli bir strateji h\u00e2line getiriyor. D\u00fczeltme riski y\u00fcksek; zira erken d\u00f6nem risk sermayesi (venture capital) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu fiyat seviyesini pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak\/\u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in kullanmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte Curser sat\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131, agresif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme stratejisine i\u015faret ediyor ve bu da ilave yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyeli besleyebilir. Trader\u2019lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, y\u00fcksek prim toplamak amac\u0131yla vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put satmay\u0131; yani y\u00fckselen korku fiyatlamas\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Veriler SpaceX\u2019te put\/call oran\u0131n\u0131n 1,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; ancak bu, b\u00f6ylesine h\u0131zl\u0131 bir t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r ve bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz \u201c\u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u201d senaryosuna pozisyonlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekte ons ba\u015f\u0131na 5.400 dolara uzanan parabolik y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve ard\u0131ndan gelen istikrarl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmesi, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemden bir uyar\u0131 niteli\u011finde. Bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc, bu kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselenin ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla geri gelebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da straddle veya strangle gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerini potansiyel olarak k\u00e2rl\u0131 k\u0131labilir. Benzer bir hik\u00e2yeyi 2021 sonlar\u0131nda \u201cg\u00f6zde\u201d teknoloji hisselerinde g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; bunlar\u0131n bir\u00e7o\u011fu takip eden y\u0131lda %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kaybetti.<\/p>\n
Genel Piyasada Rotasyon ve Sekt\u00f6r Performans\u0131<\/p>\n
Genel piyasa, teknolojiden belirgin bir rotasyon sergiliyor: Nasdaq 100 %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde gerilerken Dow Jones daha iyi performans g\u00f6steriyor. Nvidia ve Broadcom gibi isimlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019lerinde put al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, sermaye kaymas\u0131ndan faydalanan sanayi veya finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call) bak\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130nand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n verdi\u011fi Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesi, enerji piyasalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc temel olarak de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Vadeli piyasada contango derinle\u015fti; \u00f6n ay kontratlar\u0131 ileriki vadelere g\u00f6re belirgin iskontoyla i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve bu durum k\u0131sa vadeli arz fazlas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 ya da h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda ikinci en zay\u0131f sekt\u00f6r konumuna gerileyen b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji hisselerinde put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, yar\u0131nki Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015ferken piyasa daha az \u015fahin bir para politikas\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. CME FedWatch Tool, faizlerin sabit tutulma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90 olarak g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran ge\u00e7en haftaya g\u00f6re keskin bir art\u0131\u015f. Bu ortam, teknoloji yerine d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel hisseleri destekliyor ve a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131nda teknoloji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde volatilitenin yat\u0131\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
SpaceX hisseleri sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %9 daha y\u00fckselerek, ge\u00e7en haftadan bu yana y\u00fckseli\u015fini %40\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve piyasa de\u011ferini 2,78 trilyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Bu seviye Amazon\u2019un \u00fczerine, Microsoft\u2019un ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 milyar dolar alt\u0131na denk geliyor; b\u00f6ylece SpaceX d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en de\u011ferli d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u015firketi konumuna geldi. Hisseler sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n 150 kat\u0131ndan fazla bir \u00e7arpanla i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak \u015firket, halka arz\u0131nda toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 85 milyar dolar\u0131 devreye sokmaya ba\u015flad\u0131; Curser sat\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 da buna dahil. S\u00f6z konusu hamle, yapay zek\u00e2 ile \u00fcretilen kodlama ve \u015firketin ileride ilave stratejik sat\u0131n almalar\u0131 finanse edebilme kapasitesiyle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
Ralli, ABD teknoloji genelinden ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Intel, Marvell, SanDisk, Broadcom ve Nvidia\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde Nasdaq 100 %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde geriledi. Alt\u0131n, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem bir referans noktas\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131: Ons ba\u015f\u0131na 5.400 dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 1\u00c7\u2019nin ard\u0131ndan, son bir ayda %6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu arada SpaceX\u2019in de\u011ferlemesi, Fort Knox\u2019ta tutulan ABD alt\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n (1,25\u20131,3 trilyon dolar tahmin ediliyor) iki kat\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Emtia taraf\u0131nda Brent petrol, sava\u015f\u0131n bitirilmesine y\u00f6nelik bir anla\u015fman\u0131n \u201cinand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131\u201d diye tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi; Ba\u015fkan Trump ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n bu hafta i\u00e7inde Kongre\u2019ye gidece\u011fini ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Dow Jones, Nasdaq\u2019a g\u00f6re daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterdi; enerji, teknoloji sonras\u0131 en zay\u0131f ikinci sekt\u00f6r oldu ve \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde tahvil getirileri geriledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SpaceX rallisi sonras\u0131 implied volatilite %150\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131: dot-com d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu. 150x sat\u0131\u015f \u00e7arpan\u0131 d\u00fczeltme riskini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcrken VC \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde. Pahal\u0131 put, OTM put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve uzun volatilite \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Nasdaq\u2019tan rotasyon, Brent $80 alt\u0131, FOMC bekle-g\u00f6r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47759,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48955"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48955\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}