{"id":48953,"date":"2026-06-17T00:06:07","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T00:06:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/wti-fed-ve-eianin-golgesinde-abd-iran-anlasma-gorusmeleriyle-15-haftanin-en-dusugune-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-17T00:06:07","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T00:06:07","slug":"wti-fed-ve-eianin-golgesinde-abd-iran-anlasma-gorusmeleriyle-15-haftanin-en-dusugune-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/wti-fed-ve-eianin-golgesinde-abd-iran-anlasma-gorusmeleriyle-15-haftanin-en-dusugune-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"WTI, Fed ve EIA\u2019n\u0131n G\u00f6lgesinde ABD\u2013\u0130ran Anla\u015fma G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleriyle 15 Haftan\u0131n En D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne Geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

WTI \u00f6n ay vadeli kontratlar yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,8 d\u00fc\u015ferek 15 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 75 dolar b\u00f6lgesini test etti. \u0130\u015flemlerde y\u00f6n\u00fc, ABD\u2013\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n (MoU) g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemler belirledi; bu anla\u015fman\u0131n ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetebilece\u011fi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7abilece\u011fi konu\u015fuluyor. Brent\u2019in a\u011fustos kontrat\u0131 da hareketi izleyerek marttan bu yana ilk kez 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi ve 79 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Metin hen\u00fcz g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi ve imzalanmad\u0131; Washington ile Tahran farkl\u0131 anlat\u0131mlar sunuyor. Tasla\u011f\u0131n, abluka rahatlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na tavan getirilmesi ve dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131yla e\u015fle\u015ftirdi\u011fi; daha zor ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 ise 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir devam s\u00fcrecine erteledi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Daha \u00f6nceki diplomasi bozulmu\u015f, ilkbahardaki \u00e7\u0131kmaz mevcut ablukaya zemin haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve abluka b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte.<\/p>\n

Piyasalar \u015fimdi yo\u011fun bir takvimle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya: 18:00 GMT\u2019de FOMC karar\u0131 (CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u201cpas\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %97), 14:30 GMT\u2019de EIA stok verisi ve IEA\u2019n\u0131n ayl\u0131k g\u00fcncellemesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta WTI, 78,50 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA) alt\u0131nda kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131; 76\u2019y\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rarak 75\u2019e y\u00f6neldi. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA 90 dolar civar\u0131nda. Stoch RSI\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7i yakla\u015f\u0131k 12, g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmde ise 28 seviyeleri telaffuz edildi. Destek 75 dolar; diren\u00e7ler 76, 78,50 ve 80 dolar. 75\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkma, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 70\u2019ler ve ard\u0131ndan orta 60\u2019lara do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2013\u0130ran Bar\u0131\u015f Anla\u015fmas\u0131 S\u00f6ylentilerine Piyasa Tepkisi<\/h3>\n

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fcnde sert bir sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz: 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131 ve varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar seviyesi test ediliyor. Bu sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n zamanda bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131na ve bunun da yapt\u0131r\u0131m alt\u0131ndaki \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00fcresel piyasaya geri getirece\u011fine bahis oynamas\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Resmi olarak imzalanm\u0131\u015f bir anla\u015fma olmamas\u0131na ve fiilen yeni arz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flamamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen inan\u00e7 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Piyasa \u201cs\u00f6ylentiyi sat\u0131yor\u201d ve bu momentuma sayg\u0131 duymak gerekiyor; ancak tablo k\u0131r\u0131lgan. CFTC verilerine g\u00f6re 9 Haziran 2026 ile biten haftada para y\u00f6neticileri WTI vadeli ve opsiyonlar\u0131nda net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131rd\u0131; bu da hareketin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00dcstelik bu y\u0131l benzer bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, bu i\u015flemin man\u015fetlere dayal\u0131 y\u00fcksek riskli bir bahis oldu\u011fu not ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Opsiyon Stratejileri ve Yakla\u015fan Olay Riskleri<\/h3>\n

Anla\u015fman\u0131n ikili (binary) sonucu, fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zla geri sekme riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 opsiyonlarla avantaja \u00e7evirmek gerekiyor. Tarih bunun m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; \u0130ran n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n (JCPOA) 2016 ba\u015f\u0131nda uygulanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 30 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesine katk\u0131 vermi\u015fti. WTI\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nemli teknik destekleri k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 70\u2019ler hatta y\u00fcksek 60\u2019lar\u0131 hedefleyen put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri olu\u015fturmak en mant\u0131kl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131n, Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131 ve haftal\u0131k EIA stok raporuyla kritik bir \u201colay riski\u201d g\u00fcn\u00fc. Ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporu 1,2 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz ham petrol stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; bir art\u0131\u015f daha g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi talep endi\u015felerini b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcr ve fiyatlar\u0131 75 dolar deste\u011finin alt\u0131na itebilir. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek ham petrol i\u00e7in ek bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sa vadede ko\u015fullar\u0131n derin \u015fekilde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mda olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk anla\u015fman\u0131n cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc imza t\u00f6reninden \u00f6nce da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131. Ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z bir anla\u015fma, \u201csava\u015f primi\u201dnin h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131yla 80 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru sert bir ralli do\u011furabilir. Bu nedenle, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 ucuz, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge etmeyi veya man\u015fetler g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin aksad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederse k\u0131sa pozisyonlardan h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaya haz\u0131r olmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol piyasas\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f: ABD-\u0130ran MoU s\u00f6ylentisiyle WTI %5,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp 75 dolar\u0131 test etti, Brent 80\u2019in alt\u0131na indi. G\u00f6zler Fed\/EIA\u2019da; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131, 75 alt\u0131 riskli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48953","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48953","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48953"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48953\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48953"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48953"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}