USD\/CHF, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na olan talebi azaltmas\u0131yla ikinci g\u00fcnde de d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Parite 0,7921 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, seans i\u00e7inde %0,30 geriledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc imzalanmas\u0131 beklenen resm\u00ee anla\u015fma ve \u0130ran d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakan\u0131n\u0131n uyar\u0131lar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik risk nedeniyle temkinli duru\u015funu korudu. Bu belirsizlik, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 99,50 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Federal Rezerv karar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; sava\u015f kaynakl\u0131 petrol fiyat\u0131 dalgalanmalar\u0131 enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Faizlerin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalmas\u0131 tamamen fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda; odak, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n son enflasyon hareketlerini nas\u0131l \u00e7er\u00e7eveleyece\u011fine kay\u0131yor. SpeechTracker verileri, yeni atanan Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda, oy hakk\u0131na sahip 11 FOMC \u00fcyesinin alt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n net \u015fekilde \u015fahin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/CHF, 0,8000 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olduktan sonra yeniden geri \u00e7ekildi; destek 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 0,7906\u2019da, daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ise 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 0,7839 seviyesinde bulunuyor. RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 53 seviyesindeyken, MACD pozitif kalmaya devam etti ancak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik talebi azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in USD\/CHF paritesinde gev\u015feme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Parite \u015fu anda 0,8950 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve ge\u00e7en haftadan bu yana s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu, dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel belirsizlikten faydaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, kritik diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde durumun ak\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 nedeniyle temkinli duru\u015fumuzu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa korkusunun \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerinden CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) 17 civar\u0131na yerle\u015fti; son zirvelerinden gerilemi\u015f olsa da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n olas\u0131 riskleri h\u00e2l\u00e2 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu zemindeki gerilim, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bizim i\u00e7in ana odak, merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma. Federal Rezerv, May\u0131s\u2019ta %2,9 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen inat\u00e7\u0131 ABD \u00e7ekirdek T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ile m\u00fccadele ediyor; bu da tonunu \u015fahin tutuyor. Gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131da ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmede herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyonla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; son veriler y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,4\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor. Bu temel fark, SNB\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu destekliyor ve politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n daha da artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr ayr\u0131\u015fmalar, d\u00f6viz paritelerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 trendlerden \u00f6nce gelir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde USD\/CHF\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan t\u00fcrev stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Temmuz vadeli bir \u201cbear put spread\u201d etkili bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin 0,8900 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131p 0,8800 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak. Bu strateji riskimizi tan\u0131mlarken paritenin kademeli bi\u00e7imde gerilemesi halinde k\u00e2r etmemizi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Teknik grafik de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor; parite kritik 0,9000 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 olamad\u0131. \u015eimdi 0,8910 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA) deste\u011fini test ediyor. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 0,8850 yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n test edilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF, ABD-\u0130ran tansiyonunun s\u00f6nmesiyle g\u00fcvenli liman talebi zay\u0131flay\u0131nca ikinci g\u00fcnde de geriledi. G\u00f6zler Fed karar\u0131nda; \u015fahin sinyaller dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir. Teknikte 0,7906\/0,7839 destekleri izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48952","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48952"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48952\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48952"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48952"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48952"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}