Sterlin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3400 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutunarak, piyasalar\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yakla\u015fan faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde pozisyon almas\u0131yla GBP\/USD paritesinin yatay seyretmesini sa\u011flad\u0131. Kurda belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fclmezken, Dolar\u2019daki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanmaya ra\u011fmen temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan azalm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc; ancak bu geli\u015fme Sterlin\u2019e y\u00f6nelik daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir talebe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda GBP\/USD %0,03 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, parite 1,3400 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ederek yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, 16 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla Sterlin 1,3400 civar\u0131nda tutunuyor; ancak bunu, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde duraklamas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool, Fed\u2019in bu hafta faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bizim i\u00e7in kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin Fed\u2019in niyetini g\u00f6sterecek yeni \u201cdot plot\u201d (nokta grafi\u011fi) projeksiyonunun yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda keskin bir art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, GBP\/USD\u2019de bir haftal\u0131k ima edilen volatilite, kritik bir Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki g\u00fcnlerde %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayabiliyor. Cboe Sterlin Volatilite Endeksi (BPVIX) \u015fu anda 8,2 ile \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k dip seviyelere yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bunun, piyasalar\u0131n \u015fahin ya da g\u00fcvercin bir s\u00fcrpriz potansiyelini yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Beklenen bu volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanan stratejilerde de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Pozisyonlanmay\u0131 uzun strangle stratejisiyle yap\u0131yoruz; bu strateji, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) olan al\u0131m (call) ve sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n birlikte al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, mevcut dar banttan olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan yararlanmay\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ile olas\u0131 politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n da yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta son veriler \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,9 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu ve BoE hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum BoE\u2019nin faiz indirim alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Fed gelecekte indirim sinyali verirken BoE\u2019nin beklemede kalmaya zorlanmas\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde GBP\/USD i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destekleyici unsur yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskin azalmas\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenli liman talebini zay\u0131flatarak genel arka plan\u0131 destekledi. Ancak bu fakt\u00f6r, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131na k\u0131yasla ikincil konumda. Fed\u2019den beklenenden daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015f, mevcut risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakarak Dolar\u2019da belirgin bir ralli tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/USD 1,3400 \u00fczerinde yatay: Fed faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi piyasalar bekle-g\u00f6rde. Dot plot kritik. BPVIX dipte, s\u00fcrpriz riskini fiyatlam\u0131yor; volatilite s\u0131\u00e7rayabilir. Strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; BoE- Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Sterlin\u2019i destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47767,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48951"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48951\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}