USD\/CAD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3990 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve piyasalar Fed\u2019in politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temkinli kal\u0131rken fazla de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi. Parite, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ederken Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n deste\u011fiyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini korudu. \u0130svi\u00e7re D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin B\u00fcrgenstock kentinde imzalanmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor; bu geli\u015fme enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha sorunsuz olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek petrol \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle ham petroldeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Loonie\u2019yi zay\u0131flatma e\u011filiminde ve dikkatleri Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne \u00e7eviriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi beklentisiyle ABD Dolar\u0131 genel olarak yatay seyrederken, faizlerin gelecekteki seyrine ili\u015fkin ipucu i\u00e7in Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti ve dot plot \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Son veriler i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ediyor: ADP \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019nin d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k ortalamas\u0131, \u00f6nceki 29 bin seviyesinden 25,5 bine gerileyerek ek istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Enflasyon y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor; May\u0131s\u2019ta T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,2 ile Nisan 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bununla birlikte ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisine ba\u011fl\u0131 daha yumu\u015fak petrol fiyatlar\u0131, zaman i\u00e7inde fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir.<\/p>\n
Fed karar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik temkinli duru\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/CAD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli volatilitenin olmas\u0131 gerekenden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bir haftal\u0131k opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni volatilite %7,8\u2019e y\u00fckselse de, bunu beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir harekete pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fed\u2019in dot plotunun a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalanmak \u00fczere straddle stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Paritede iyimser (bullish) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn ana belirleyicisi petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131k olmaya devam ediyor. Temmuz vadeli WTI ham petrol kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n bu sabah varil ba\u015f\u0131na 72 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarak \u015eubat 2026\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rmesi, Kanada dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay vadesi dolacak 1,4100 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek \u00f6nemli bir jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fken oldu\u011funun fark\u0131nday\u0131z. Benzer diplomatik temaslar\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa u\u011framas\u0131yla 2023\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert ralliyi ve k\u0131sa enerji pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Bu nedenle, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc duyurulmas\u0131 beklenen anla\u015fman\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla hedge ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; \u00f6zellikle Kanada\u2019n\u0131n son istihdam raporunun beklentileri a\u015farak 35 bin ki\u015filik s\u00fcrpriz bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi sonras\u0131. BoC\u2019nin yurt i\u00e7i g\u00fcc\u00fc dizginlemek i\u00e7in daha \u015fahin bir tona y\u00f6nelmek zorunda kalmas\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d sinyali vermesi halinde USD\/CAD\u2019deki ana y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi sorgulanabilir. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca temel bullish tezimize y\u00f6nelik ba\u015fl\u0131ca riski olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed \u00f6ncesi USD\/CAD 1,3990\u2019da sakin: Petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve Loonie zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 e\u011filimi koruyor. ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131 petrol\u00fc bask\u0131larken, dot plot sonras\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma i\u00e7in straddle ve 1,4100 call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48949\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}