Hafta sonu anla\u015fma man\u015fetlerinin ard\u0131ndan EUR\/USD yatay seyrini korudu; Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc geri \u00e7ekilme 1,1550\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutunurken parite yeniden 1,1600\u2019a do\u011fru a\u011f\u0131r a\u011f\u0131r toparland\u0131 ve hemen \u00fczerinde bulunan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda tak\u0131ld\u0131. ECB zaten s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gitti; ge\u00e7en Per\u015fembe 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez faiz art\u0131rarak, sekiz ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k indirimin ard\u0131ndan mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Bu s\u0131rada \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,5 civar\u0131nda seyretmeye devam ediyor. Almanya\u2019da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 beklentileri k\u0131\u015ftan bu yana ilk kez pozitife d\u00f6nerken, mevcut ko\u015fullar endeksi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde negatif kald\u0131; baz\u0131 masalar ise olas\u0131 bir sonraki ad\u0131m i\u00e7in Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Odak, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh d\u00f6nemindeki ilk karara kay\u0131yor; FOMC\u2019nin %3,50-%3,75 band\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutmas\u0131 genel beklenti. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda SEP (Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti) ve bunun geri plana at\u0131l\u0131p at\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131 var. ABD T\u00dcFE %4,2 seviyesinde ve piyasalar Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; 2027\u2019ye kadar ise faiz indirimi fiyatlanm\u0131yor. Ham Petrol\u2019\u00fc 120 dolara do\u011fru iten enerji \u015foku, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7eve anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7mas\u0131yla tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc; petrol yeniden 80 dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken Dolar 10 g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Nihai May\u0131s HICP 09:00 GMT\u2019de, ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; ard\u0131ndan Fed karar\u0131 18:00 GMT\u2019de ve bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 18:30 GMT\u2019de. Diren\u00e7 1,1600\u2019un \u00fczerinde; ard\u0131ndan 1,1650 ve 1,1700 izlenirken, destek 1,1550; sonra 1,1500 ve Haziran ba\u015f\u0131 dipleri konumunda.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD kurunu, 1,1600 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda zorlanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel bir harekete \u201cyaylanm\u0131\u015f\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u015fahin bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015fken, Fed\u2019in ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla adeta buharla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 hen\u00fcz fiyata tam yans\u0131mad\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bize bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma beklentisiyle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Erken Temmuz vadeli 1,1650 veya 1,1700 gibi kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedeflemek, bu \u00c7ar\u015famba yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvercin bir ton tak\u0131nmas\u0131 halinde getiriyi yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6denen primle maksimum riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar; bu da yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n ilk bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bir haftay\u0131 biraz a\u015fan s\u00fcrede varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolardan 80 dolara yak\u0131n seviyelere gerileyerek %33 d\u00fc\u015fmesi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dezenflasyon sinyalidir. Paritede bir haftal\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite %8\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak piyasan\u0131n tedirgin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; ancak biz, bu yeni ger\u00e7e\u011fi kabul eden bir Fed riskinin piyasada yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak 2014 sonundaki \u00f6rnekte oldu\u011fu gibi enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu denli sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131 politika de\u011fi\u015fimine zorlayarak kal\u0131c\u0131 kur trendlerine yol a\u00e7abilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi takti\u011fi olarak, 1,1600 call al\u0131p 1,1700 call satarak bo\u011fa call spread kullan\u0131m\u0131 giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilir. Bu yap\u0131, yukar\u0131 hareketten yine faydalan\u0131rken kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak daha muhafazak\u00e2r bir senaryo sunar. Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 1,1550 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yeniden de\u011ferlendirme sinyali olacakt\u0131r; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu, Dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn beklenenden daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
Bu haftan\u0131n \u00f6tesinde odak, ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funun s\u00fcrece\u011fini destekleyen teyit edici verilerde olacak. Euro B\u00f6lgesi May\u0131s ay\u0131 nihai HICP enflasyonunun \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,5 civar\u0131nda inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini do\u011frulamas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da ECB\u2019ye yeni bir art\u0131\u015f sinyali vermek i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin sa\u011flar. Euro\u2019nun devam eden faiz avantaj\u0131, yaz boyunca pariteye istikrarl\u0131 bir destek r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD 1,1550 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunup 1,1600 alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrerken g\u00f6zler yeni Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131nda. Petrol \u015fokunun s\u00f6nmesi dolar bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; 1,1650-1,1700 hedefli opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48948"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48948\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}