Alt\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.325 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.355 dolarl\u0131k zirveden geri \u00e7ekilmesine ra\u011fmen 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunurken, piyasalar ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evesine ili\u015fkin daha fazla ayr\u0131nt\u0131 ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Federal Rezerv karar\u0131n\u0131 bekledi. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019a bir sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ya da i\u015fgalin s\u00fcrmesinin ge\u00e7ici d\u00fczenlemeyi ihlal edece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Hizbullah ise, \u0130srail\u2019in \u00e7ekilmesi olmadan Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington\u2019la bir n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 nihayete erdirmeyece\u011fine dair g\u00fcvenceleri oldu\u011funu belirtti. Zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 ve gerileyen Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k seansta k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n\u0131 destekledi; ancak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc beklenen nihai anla\u015fma \u00f6ncesinde ve enflasyon Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken pozisyonlanma temkinli kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin (WGC) 2026 Merkez Bankas\u0131 Alt\u0131n Rezervleri Anketi, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n %45\u2019inin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda alt\u0131n rezervlerinin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Rapora g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 son d\u00f6rt y\u0131lda y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama 1.000 ton seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; bu, \u00f6nceki on y\u0131la k\u0131yasla iki katl\u0131k bir h\u0131z. Grafiklerde XAU\/USD 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor; g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 44 seviyesinde ve MACD histogram\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 negatif. Diren\u00e7 4.458 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 4.755 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, destek 4.000 dolar \u00e7evresinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut durumu, hem Fed karar\u0131n\u0131n hem de ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n bu hafta imzalanmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndemde olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, y\u00fcksek \u201colay riski\u201d ile tan\u0131mlanan bir d\u00f6nem olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki konumu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, agresif y\u00f6n bahisleri almak yerine sert hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak daha ihtiyatl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7in ana odak noktas\u0131, sermayeyi korumak ve olay sonras\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa pozisyonlanmak olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin son T\u00dcFE verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,9 ile gelerek, Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u015fahin kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerini izliyoruz; piyasalar bu hafta faizlerin sabit kalmas\u0131 beklense de Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar en az bir ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131ndan beklenmedik \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u201csert\u201d bir s\u00f6ylem gelmesi, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in 4.000 dolardaki destek seviyesini h\u0131zla test edebilir.<\/p>\n
Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek seyrederken, GVZ Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi 21,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesi piyasa tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu durum, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle ya da strangle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n, b\u00f6ylesine ikili (binary) olaylar\u0131n \u00fczerinden \u201c\u00e7\u0131plak\u201d vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131maktan daha rasyonel oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, alt\u0131n\u0131n kritik 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini teyit ediyor. Uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 4.100 dolar civar\u0131nda olan \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n maliyet-etkin bir hedge sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu, olas\u0131 olumsuz bir jeopolitik s\u00fcrpriz veya \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 net bir g\u00fcvenlik a\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli risklere ra\u011fmen, son y\u0131llarda y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde ortalamaya ula\u015fan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131ndan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc uzun vadeli deste\u011fi not ediyoruz. Bu, 2010-2012 d\u00f6neminde egemen talebin piyasa \u00e7alkant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturdu\u011fu s\u00fcreci hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu da, bu haftaki haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi belirgin geri \u00e7ekilmelerin daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sunabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n 4.325 dolarda; ABD\u2013\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi olay riski tavan. Dolar zay\u0131f, petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. WGC\u2019ye g\u00f6re al\u0131mlar 1.000 ton. Teknik zay\u0131f: 4.000 destek, 4.458 diren\u00e7. Opsiyonla korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48946"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48946\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}