Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Washington ile Tahran aras\u0131nda ilan edildi\u011fini duyurdu\u011fu ate\u015fkesin ard\u0131ndan\u2014H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik planlar dahil\u2014iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fle birlikte sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 52.100\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyede rekor tazeledi. \u015eubat sonundaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birini devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakarak petrol\u00fc 120 dolara do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Dow da nisan ay\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 45.000 seviyelerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ate\u015fkesin etkisini g\u00f6stermesiyle petrol yeniden 70\u2019li dolarlar\u0131n ortas\u0131na geriledi ve riskli varl\u0131klara g\u00f6m\u00fcl\u00fc enflasyon primini azaltt\u0131. Anla\u015fma h\u00e2len imzalanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil ve \u00f6nceki ate\u015fkesler ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmu\u015ftu; bu da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde piyasalar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor. Bu toplant\u0131, yeni Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh liderli\u011finde yap\u0131lacak ilk toplant\u0131 olacak; karar 18.00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak, bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 18.30 GMT\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %60\u2019a yak\u0131n; 25 baz puanl\u0131k hamleyle band\u0131n %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 baz senaryo olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Politika faizi ise aral\u0131ktan bu yana %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve faiz indirimleri neredeyse fiyatlanm\u0131yor. Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00f6rt kar\u015f\u0131 oy \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; Warsh\u2019\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeye (forward guidance) \u015f\u00fcpheyle yakla\u015fmas\u0131, duru\u015fta olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fime ve \u201cdot plot\u201da ilgiyi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI 45\u2019e yak\u0131n, 5 dakikal\u0131k okuma 19 civar\u0131nda; diren\u00e7 52.100\u2019de, destekler 51.800, yakla\u015f\u0131k 51.650 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi 50.000 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde ve hareketin neredeyse tamam\u0131 \u0130ran ate\u015fkesi haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile bunun tetikledi\u011fi ham petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden besleniyor. Dow\u2019un 52.100\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyeye s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, petrol\u00fcn sava\u015f d\u00f6nemi zirvesi olan 120 dolardan %35\u2019in \u00fczerinde gerilemesiyle do\u011frudan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyona y\u00f6nelik bir bahis. 2022\u2019deki enerji \u015fokunun, Fed\u2019in h\u00e2l\u00e2 kontrol alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyona nas\u0131l do\u011frudan yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamak gerekir; bu nedenle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ancak tek bir hik\u00e2yeye dayanan bir anlat\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadeli ana risk, yar\u0131nki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131; Kevin Warsh y\u00f6netimindeki ilk toplant\u0131. CME FedWatch vadeli i\u015flemlerine g\u00f6re piyasa aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, dezenflasyonist \u201cbar\u0131\u015f i\u015flemi\u201d (peace trade) ile belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00e7eli\u015fiyor. Mevcut ralliyi zorlayabilecek daha \u015fahin bir \u00e7izgiye i\u015faret edip etmeyece\u011fini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in yeni dot plot\u2019undaki olas\u0131 sinyalleri izliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik iyimserlik ile para politikas\u0131 riskinin \u00e7at\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu ortamda, ana tema olarak oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Warsh\u2019\u0131n ileti\u015fim tarz\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ve ate\u015fkesin hen\u00fcz imzalanmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, bu s\u00fcreci ikili (binary) bir olaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. B\u00f6yle bir kataliz\u00f6r\u00fcn hemen \u00f6ncesinde rekor seviyede pahal\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) almak riskli; bunun yerine her iki y\u00f6ne de anlaml\u0131 bir harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak daha rasyonel.<\/p>\n
Stratejimizin merkezinde, Dow\u2019da risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kilit \u00e7izgi olarak 51.800 seviyesi bulunuyor. Bu deste\u011fin net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, bar\u0131\u015f i\u015fleminin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edece\u011finden uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) ile hedge etmeyi g\u00fcndeme getirir. Tarihsel olarak piyasalar Fed haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na s\u0131k\u00e7a a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki verir; bu nedenle a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n korumas\u0131n\u0131 devreye almak tutarl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir ilk s\u0131nav vermesi ve a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 Dow\u2019un 51.800 \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 halinde y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi teyit edilmi\u015f olur. 52.100 rekorunun \u00fczerinde temiz bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, yukar\u0131da belirgin bir diren\u00e7 olmadan \u201ca\u00e7\u0131k alan\u201d yarat\u0131r. Bu senaryoda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131makta rahat oluruz; ancak disiplinimiz, yeni risk almak i\u00e7in bu olay riskinin (event risk) ge\u00e7mesini beklemek y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ate\u015fkes umudu petrol\u00fc 70\u2019lere \u00e7ekti, Dow 52.100\u2019e yak\u0131n rekor tazeledi. Ancak anla\u015fma imzas\u0131z: g\u00f6zler Warsh\u2019l\u0131 ilk Fed\u2019de. Piyasa aral\u0131\u011fa kadar %60 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknikte 51.800 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48945"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48945\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}