Avustralya dolar\u0131, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutarken s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma e\u011filimini korumas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. AUD\/USD, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 0,7042 seviyesindeki dipten toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 0,7070 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. RBA, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda arka arkaya gelen \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika faizini %4,35\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve yurt i\u00e7i ekonomik aktivite ile enflasyona ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu belirterek, enflasyon hedefine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in gerekirse politika faizini daha da art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131 olan \u00c7in\u2019den gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyalleri de fiyatlad\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de May\u0131s Sanayi \u00dcretimi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,5 artarak %4,3 beklentisini a\u015farken, Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar de\u011fi\u015fim beklenirken %0,6 geriledi. AUD\/USD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fc, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Fed kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde genel olarak yatay seyretmesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Fed\u2019in politika faizini d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da da %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Di\u011fer yandan, ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7eve anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gerilerken, ABD T\u00dcFE May\u0131s\u2019ta %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek Nisan 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. FXStreet verilerine g\u00f6re, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh hari\u00e7 11 oy hakk\u0131 bulunan FOMC \u00fcyesinin alt\u0131s\u0131 \u015fahin.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %4,10 seviyesinde sabit tutma karar\u0131, Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar destek bulabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ara verilmesine kar\u015f\u0131n \u015fahin ton, enflasyonun gerilememesi halinde yeniden faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidilebilece\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 vererek \u015fimdilik kurun taban\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. AUD\/USD paritesinin de bu tepkiyi verdi\u011fini, karar sonras\u0131 0,6650 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00c7in\u2019den gelen son kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k veriler Avustralya dolar\u0131nda tabloyu bulan\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; zira Aussie \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u00c7in ekonomisine duyarl\u0131 bir \u201cproxy\u201d gibi i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019in May\u0131s sanayi \u00fcretimi beklentilerin \u00fczerinde %5,9 gelirken, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar yaln\u0131zca %2,8 artarak tahminlerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, toparlanman\u0131n dengesiz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek AUD\u2019de daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralliyi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131yla ana belirleyici g\u00fc\u00e7 olmaya devam ediyor. Fed fonlama faizi %5,25-%5,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, son enflasyon verileri T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,1 seviyesinde oldu\u011funu ve Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. ABD ile Avustralya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131, AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u015fahin RBA ile daha da \u015fahin bir Fed aras\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7eki\u015fme, k\u0131sa vadede bant hareketinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,6550\u20130,6750 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen iron condor gibi stratejilerle volatilite satman\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Y\u00fcksek belirsizlik, opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip primler sunuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 nedeniyle, uzun pozisyonlar i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korumay\u0131 da de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) AUD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, kritik deste\u011fin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir hedge imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Tarihsel olarak Fed enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede bu denli kararl\u0131 oldu\u011funda\u20142023\u2019te g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00fczere\u2014daha riskli para birimleri g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6sterme e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBA faizi sabit tutsa da \u015fahin tonu AUD\u2019yi destekledi: AUD\/USD 0,7042\u2019den 0,7070\u2019e toparland\u0131. \u00c7in verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, Fed \u00f6ncesi dolar yatay; faiz fark\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47791,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48942","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48942"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48942\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48942"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48942"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48942"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}