Kanada Ulusal Bankas\u0131 (National Bank of Canada), g\u00f6reli b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019yi desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirterek, euronun ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeline sahip oldu\u011funu savundu. Banka, Avrupa\u2019dan gelen karma\u015f\u0131k verilere i\u015faret ederken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) politika gev\u015fetmeye Fed\u2019den daha yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda EUR\/USD\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir unsur oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Banka, EUR\/USD\u2019yi yukar\u0131 iten dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinin ge\u00e7ici kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; paritenin yatay seyretmesi ancak hafif a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim g\u00f6stermesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca, ABD makro verileri g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam etti\u011fi ve Avrupa g\u00f6stergeleri ikna edici bir iyile\u015fme sergilemedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fini ekledi. Haber, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 yard\u0131m\u0131yla haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn tarihi olan 16 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla, temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn euroya k\u0131yasla ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan son istihdam verileri 215 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,9 seviyesinde diren\u00e7li seyretmesi Fed\u2019in \u201csab\u0131rl\u0131\u201d duru\u015funu peki\u015ftiriyor. Bu tablo, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor: enflasyon %2,1\u2019e gerilerken, Almanya imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 46,2 gibi zay\u0131f bir seviyede kalmas\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere, kilit b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergeleri geride seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesinde 1,0900 seviyesine do\u011fru olu\u015fabilecek g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi bir sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu ge\u00e7ici yukar\u0131 hareketler, iki b\u00f6lge aras\u0131ndaki temel ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fma taraf\u0131ndan desteklenmiyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, parite teknik diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken vadeli i\u015flemlerde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 veya put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n
S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sert hareketlerin g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi yatay piyasa beklentisi, opsiyon primlerinin\u2014\u00f6zellikle ima edilen volatilitenin\u2014y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na neden olabilir. Bu ortamda zaman de\u011ferindeki erimeyi ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda euronun anlaml\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumlu.<\/p>\n
Hafif a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filime pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bear put spread\u2019leri cazip buluyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin tarihsel olarak, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n bu denli net ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde\u2014ECB\u2019nin parasal geni\u015fleme \u00f6ncesi 2014-2015 s\u00fcrecinde oldu\u011fu gibi\u2014yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemler iyi performans g\u00f6sterebilmi\u015ftir. Bu strateji, EUR\/USD\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften getiri sa\u011flarken azami riski net \u015fekilde tan\u0131mlamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f hayal mi? National Bank of Canada\u2019ya g\u00f6re ABD g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri ve faiz fark\u0131yla dolar\u0131 destekliyor; ECB gev\u015femeye yak\u0131n. 1,09\u2019a hareketler sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131, parite yatay-hafif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48941","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48941","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48941"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48941\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48941"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48941"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48941"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}