GBP\/JPY, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politikay\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc takiben toparlanarak, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 214,53 seviyesini test ettikten sonra 215,10 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. BoJ\u2019un \u00fc\u00e7 toplant\u0131l\u0131k ara sonras\u0131 politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %0,75\u2019ten %1,00\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesiyle Japon Yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; b\u00f6ylece bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ancak sonraki fiyatlamalar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u015eahin y\u00f6nlendirmeye ra\u011fmen Yen kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmekte zorland\u0131; oda\u011f\u0131n BoJ\u2019un Nisan 2027\u2019den itibaren bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatma plan\u0131na ve negatif reel faizlerin s\u00fcrmesine kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. BBH\u2019nin at\u0131f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda ilave 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75 olarak ima ederken, Nisan ay\u0131 verilerinde \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE g\u00f6stergelerinin %2\u2019nin daha da alt\u0131na geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret etti. G\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanacak istihdam piyasas\u0131 verilerinin ard\u0131ndan, Banka Faizi\u2019nin \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da %3,75\u2019te sabit tutulmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi %1,00\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi GBP\/JPY i\u00e7in temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. \u0130ngiltere faizleri %3,75 seviyesindeyken, faiz fark\u0131 Sterlin\u2019i Yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (carry) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde te\u015fvik etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Son geri \u00e7ekilmeyi al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fcksek kur seviyesini destekleyen temel dinamikler korunuyor.<\/p>\n
Parite 215,10 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu, 2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizinden \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemden bu yana kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyeler oldu\u011fundan temkin gerektiriyor. Bununla birlikte, \u0130ngiltere Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) son enflasyon verileri \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %2 hedefi civar\u0131nda istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, BoE\u2019nin agresif faiz indirimlerine i\u015faret etmesi i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 neden var. Bu da Japonya ile geni\u015f ve kal\u0131c\u0131 politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleyenler i\u00e7in, bu y\u00fcksek seviyelerden pariteyi do\u011frudan almak yerine y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin 216 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p 218 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak kurulacak bir \u201cdebit call spread\u201d, parite kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle getiri sa\u011flama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Bu strateji yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendden faydalan\u0131rken, yakla\u015fan \u0130ngiltere verilerinin hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan \u0130ngiltere verileri ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilecek \u00f6nerilen ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle olas\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir. GBP\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %10\u2019un alt\u0131ndaki seviyelerden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket ederek piyasalar\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 213,00 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, sert ve beklenmedik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet-etkin bir korunma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler bu Per\u015fembe BoE karar\u0131nda ve \u00f6ncesindeki \u0130ngiltere enflasyon ile istihdam raporlar\u0131nda olacak. Kritik detay, politika y\u00f6nlendirmesi ve oylama da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131; faiz indirimi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki oylar\u0131n artmas\u0131, y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine i\u015faret ederek Sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. O zamana kadar, devam eden carry trade cazibesiyle desteklenen GBP\/JPY\u2019de en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ faizi %1\u2019e \u00e7ekse de Yen\u2019in rallisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131: GBP\/JPY 214,53\u2019ten 215,10\u2019a toparland\u0131. Geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 carry\u2019yi destekliyor; BoE karar\u0131\/UK verileri risk. Opsiyonla y\u00fckseli\u015f, put\u2019la korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48939"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48939\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47727"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}