OCBC\u2019den Sim Moh Siong, 14 Haziran\u2019daki ABD\u2013\u0130ran mutabakat zapt\u0131na (imzan\u0131n 19 Haziran\u2019da at\u0131lmas\u0131 hedefleniyor) piyasalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201crisk-on\u201d tepkinin, ABD tahvil getirileri ve geni\u015f bazl\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir gev\u015feme yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Banka, dolar\u0131n diren\u00e7li seyrini; bu hafta yap\u0131lacak FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u015fahin sonu\u00e7 ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik temkin, etkinlik \u00f6ncesi pozisyonlar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve istihdam talebini destekleyerek ABD\u2019nin benzer \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ayakta tutan yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine ba\u011flad\u0131. OCBC, dolar konusunda n\u00f6tr duru\u015funu korurken, do\u011frudan USD k\u0131sa pozisyonu yerine FX \u00e7apraz i\u015flemlerini tercih ediyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131 da USD\u2019de ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bir fren unsuru olarak de\u011ferlendirildi. Brent, varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 83 ABD dolar\u0131na gerileyerek bir\u00e7ok y\u0131l sonu tahminine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, OCBC y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru 80 ABD dolar\u0131na do\u011fru kademeli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; ancak risklerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00e7arp\u0131k oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Rapora g\u00f6re H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile normalle\u015fme muhtemelen kademeli olacakt\u0131r; may\u0131n temizli\u011fi, sigorta kapsam\u0131n\u0131n yeniden tesis edilmesi, kapat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00fcretimin yeniden devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve ihtiyati stoklama gibi unsurlar petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yava\u015flatabilir. Ayr\u0131ca IDR, INR ve PHP gibi geli\u015fen piyasa petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimlerindeki toparlanmaya da at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu nedenle dolar\u0131 do\u011frudan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa satmak riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Piyasalar, gelecek hafta Fed\u2019in politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde belirgin \u015fekilde temkinli. Bu da volatilitede uzun pozisyon almay\u0131 veya dolara kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6nl\u00fc bahis kurmay\u0131 cazip olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisinin, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yapay zek\u00e2 odakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n besledi\u011fi dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam piyasas\u0131n\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son istihdam raporu 272 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek \u00fccret bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tuttu. Bu temel g\u00fc\u00e7, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine acele etmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon i\u015flemleri yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, prim toplamak amac\u0131yla dolar \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put opsiyonlar\u0131 satman\u0131n uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. VIX endeksiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen piyasa volatilitesi g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 13 seviyeleri civar\u0131nda seyrederken, sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanman\u0131n bir yolu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, hem zaman de\u011ferindeki erimeden hem de dolar\u0131n beklenen istikrar\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da dolara taban olu\u015fturarak olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Son ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131na ra\u011fmen Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na belirgin bir sarkma beklemiyoruz. K\u00fcresel arzda olas\u0131 normalle\u015fme yava\u015f ilerleyece\u011finden, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla dolar destek bulmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir.<\/p>\n
Fed politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik nedeniyle, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermeyen FX \u00e7apraz i\u015flemlerine odaklanmay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bu, Fed kaynakl\u0131 ani bir harekete maruz kalmadan Euro\u2019nun Japon Yeni\u2019ne g\u00f6re g\u00f6reli g\u00fcc\u00fc gibi di\u011fer ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki farklara pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar. EUR\/JPY veya AUD\/NZD gibi paritelerde vadeli i\u015flem ya da opsiyon kullanmak, ana etkinlik riskini bertaraf edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015ea\u015f\u0131rtan diren\u00e7: ABD\u2013\u0130ran MOU sonras\u0131 \u201crisk-on\u201d dolar\u0131 ancak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gev\u015fetti. OCBC, FOMC \u00f6ncesi \u015fahin risk, AI destekli b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve petrol taban\u0131yla USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcp \u00e7aprazlar\u0131, OTM put satmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48937"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48937\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}