SpaceX (SPCX), sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasa \u00f6ncesi i\u015flemlerde %4 y\u00fckselerek 200 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc halka arz edilip cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015fleme ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ivmesini \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seans\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Hisseler 135 dolardan fiyatlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve \u00fcst \u00fcste iki g\u00fcn %19 y\u00fckselerek pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc 192,50 dolardan tamamlad\u0131. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken i\u015flemlerde hisse 214,62 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 201 dolar seviyesine geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
ABD endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: S&P 500 ve NASDAQ vadeli i\u015flemleri d\u00fc\u015ferken, Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00e7eyrek puan y\u00fckseldi. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm; Trump y\u00f6netiminin, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7acak \u0130ran ile bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc NASDAQ\u2019\u0131n %3,1 ve S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn %1,7 y\u00fckselmesini izledi. WTI pazartesi %4 geriledi ve sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerde %4 daha d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca SpaceX, Cursor AI kod asistan\u0131n\u0131n sahibi Anysphere\u2019i 60 milyar dolara sat\u0131n alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; i\u015flemin 3. \u00e7eyrekte tamamlanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u015eirket yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir dola\u015f\u0131mdaki pay oran\u0131yla i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve piyasa de\u011feri 2,5 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde; Amazon (AMZN) ile ayn\u0131 seviyede.<\/p>\n
SPCX hissesinin patlay\u0131c\u0131 bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan as\u0131l hik\u00e2ye, opsiyon zincirindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 z\u0131mni volatilite. Dola\u015f\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n sadece %4 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, herhangi bir haber b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abiliyor; bu da opsiyon primlerini son derece \u201cpahal\u0131\u201d hale getiriyor. Bu ortam, y\u00f6n tahmininden ziyade volatilitenin kendisini i\u015flemeye daha uygun.<\/p>\n
\u0130vmenin s\u00fcrece\u011fine inananlar i\u00e7in, y\u00fcksek volatilite nedeniyle (muhtemelen %150\u2019nin epey \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor) do\u011frudan al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak pahal\u0131. Daha iyi bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve riski tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread\u2019leri kullanmak olabilir. Bu strateji, y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar; ancak hisse yataya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne (volatility crush) kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sunar.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, 2021\u2019deki ilk s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde de\u011ferinin %80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 kaybeden Rivian gibi y\u00fcksek profilli halka arzlarda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da hesaba katmal\u0131y\u0131z. Uydu-cep telefonu (satellite-to-cell) i\u015f modeli etraf\u0131ndaki \u015f\u00fcphecilik bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Put opsiyonu almak veya ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri kurmak, hem k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir korunma (hedge) hem de d\u00fczeltmeye do\u011frudan bir bahis olabilir.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksekli\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hissenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda konsolide olaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yorsak prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 taraf\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa straddle veya iron condor gibi stratejiler, zaman de\u011ferinin erimesinden ve volatilitenin gerilemesinden faydalanabilir. Ancak risk \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fcksek; Musk\u2019tan gelebilecek beklenmedik herhangi bir haber b\u00fcy\u00fck zararlara yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Daha geni\u015f piyasa ba\u011flam\u0131 stratejimize bir katman daha ekliyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n son iki g\u00fcnde %8 d\u00fc\u015fmesi enflasyon endi\u015felerini azalt\u0131yor; bu da genellikle SPCX gibi y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 teknoloji de\u011ferlemelerini destekler. Ancak S&P 500 ve NASDAQ\u2019ta zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015faretleri varken, piyasa genelinde \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d (risk-off) ya\u015fanmas\u0131 halinde, \u015firket \u00f6zelindeki haberlerden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bi\u00e7imde SPCX rallisinin kolayca durabilece\u011fi konusunda temkinli olmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yeni halka arz SPCX, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta 200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanarak dikkatleri \u00e7ekti; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck dola\u015f\u0131m opsiyonlarda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 volatiliteyi k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor. Anysphere hamlesi ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol, stratejileri belirleyecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47734,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48936"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48936\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}