ABD Redbook Endeksi, 12 Haziran haftas\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %9,4 art\u0131\u015fa y\u00fckseldi; \u00f6nceki seviye %9,1\u2019di. Bu hareket, endeksin yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k h\u0131zlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son Redbook verisi, t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ayn\u0131 zamanda ivmelendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu beklenmedik g\u00fc\u00e7, ekonomide altta yatan enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin \u015fekilde var oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun, Fed\u2019in yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda daha agresif bir duru\u015f sergileme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini; h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde bulunan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizinin daha y\u00fcksek seviyeleri test etmesini bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, faizlerin y\u00fckselmesinden fayda sa\u011flayacak pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin TLT gibi Hazine tahvili ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131. Bu, 2022\u2019deki piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na benzer; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makro veriler, sabit getirili tarafta kademeli sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetiklemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetleri taraf\u0131nda ise bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketici aktivitesi perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in destekleyici bir unsur. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f verilerinin 2\u00c7 k\u00e2rlar\u0131na beklentilerin \u00fczerinde yans\u0131mas\u0131 muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (consumer discretionary) ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte diren\u00e7li harcamalar sayesinde beklentileri a\u015fan \u015firketlerin, bu e\u011filimi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Genel piyasa ise \u00e7eli\u015fkili bir sinyalle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k potansiyeli ile daha y\u00fcksek faizlerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n ters y\u00f6nde esmesi. Ge\u00e7en ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan T\u00dcFE\u2019nin de %3,5 ile yukar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Fed politikas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 endi\u015felerin tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131, VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak uzun hisse pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedge ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha \u015fahin bir Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek sa\u011flayabilir. Dolar endeksi, Fed\u2019in 10 Haziran\u2019daki son toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan zaten g\u00fc\u00e7lenme sinyali vermi\u015fti. Daha fazla dolar de\u011ferlenmesi beklentisiyle, daha g\u00fcvercin merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 USD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon alarak konumlan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Redbook y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %9,4\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131: ABD t\u00fcketicisi h\u0131z kesmiyor. Bu tablo enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 diri tutup Fed\u2019i \u015fahinle\u015ftirebilir; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz yukar\u0131, tahviller bask\u0131da; perakende hisselerine destek, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48935","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48935"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48935\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}