USD\/JPY, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti; odak bir sonraki ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) karar\u0131na ve Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na gelecek Warsh\u2019a kayd\u0131. BoJ politika faizini %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltti ve Japon Devlet Tahvili (JGB) al\u0131m planlar\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitti; buna, uzun vadeli faizler sert y\u00fckselirse al\u0131mlar\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fine dair y\u00f6nlendirme de dahil. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir devam hareketine i\u015faret ediyor: ima edilen oranlar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki alt\u0131 ayda yaln\u0131zca ilave 15 baz puanl\u0131k bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Rabobank\u2019\u0131n \u00e7er\u00e7evesi, BoJ\u2019un daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha net sinyaller vermesi halinde yenin destek bulaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bankan\u0131n USD\/JPY i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce ilave BoJ s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na dair mesaj verilmesi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor; bu da s\u00f6z konusu ufukta daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir USD\/JPY ile uyumlu. K\u0131sa vadede ise paritenin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn, Fed\u2019in bir s\u00fcre politikay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fi beklentisiyle, Warsh\u2019tan ileti\u015fim tarz\u0131 ve politika \u00e7er\u00e7evelerine ili\u015fkin gelebilecek ipu\u00e7lar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY y\u00fcksek seviyelerini korudu ve h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 159,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. BoJ politika faizini %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltmi\u015f olsa da, odak art\u0131k yeni Fed liderli\u011finden gelecek sinyallere kay\u0131yor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yen i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ma edilen piyasa faizleri, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n BoJ\u2019dan daha agresif bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131m\u0131 gelece\u011fine tam olarak ikna olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131, 2026 sonuna kadar bir adet daha 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 oran\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Enflasyonun diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bunun BoJ\u2019un kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon verisi %2,9 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu da daha \u015fahin bir politika duru\u015funu destekleyen bir e\u011filime i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, i\u00e7 enflasyon bu kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funda, merkez bankas\u0131 nihayetinde piyasan\u0131n ilk etapta bekledi\u011finden daha kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atma e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, lehimize kullanabilece\u011fimiz bir fiyatlama hatas\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00fc\u00e7 ayda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yen i\u00e7in pozisyon alma f\u0131rsat\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/JPY\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin JPY call veya USD put al\u0131m\u0131. Bu pozisyonlar, BoJ\u2019un beklenenden daha erken ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali vermesi halinde potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle de\u011ferlendirmeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de federal fonlama faizi \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek olan %4,75 seviyesinde bulunsa da, yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019ndan gelebilecek g\u00fcvercin mesajlar USD\/JPY\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Son iki y\u0131lda geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 yeni zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ancak bu e\u011filim bir k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131na yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Kritik unsur, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Fed\u2019de olmas\u0131; as\u0131l s\u00fcrprizin ise Tokyo\u2019dan gelme ihtimali.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz Tokyo\u2019dan m\u0131 gelecek? BoJ faizi %1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p JGB al\u0131mlar\u0131nda esneklik sinyali verdi; USD\/JPY 159,50\u2019de yatay. Piyasa s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler Fed\/Warsh mesajlar\u0131nda, yen i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47664,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48933","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48933"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48933\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47664"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48933"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48933"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48933"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}