ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n metninin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde yay\u0131mlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD\u2019nin k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenleyece\u011fini, ayr\u0131ca mutabakat zapt\u0131na (memorandum of understanding) ili\u015fkin ilave bir medya de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Anla\u015fman\u0131n inceleme i\u00e7in Kongre\u2019ye g\u00f6nderilece\u011fini de belirten Trump, anla\u015fman\u0131n ikinci a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ilerlemesini bekledi\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, mutabakat zapt\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve anla\u015fmay\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah edinmesini engellemeyi hedefleyen bir d\u00fczenleme olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi. Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne kadar tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda ise ABD\u2019nin Rusya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik petrol muafiyetlerinin sona ermesine izin verebilecek konumda oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklemeliyiz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu Cuma yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, WTI vadeli i\u015flemlerini varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda tutan jeopolitik risk primini derhal silecektir. \u00d6rt\u00fck volatilitenin sert bi\u00e7imde gerilemesi beklendi\u011finden, USO gibi petrol ETF\u2019lerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak buna g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilimin azalmas\u0131, genel piyasa volatilitesini de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. Son bir ayd\u0131r 22 gibi y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek seviyelerde seyreden CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX), k\u00fcresel belirsizli\u011fin \u00f6nemli bir kayna\u011f\u0131 ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in keskin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklenir. VIX vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon ya da volatilite \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde put spread stratejilerinde f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enerji maliyetleri, genel hisse piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in destekleyici bir unsur sa\u011flar. Bu durum, t\u00fcketiciler i\u00e7in fiili bir vergi indirimi etkisi yarat\u0131r ve \u00f6zellikle ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ile sanayi sekt\u00f6rlerinde \u015firketlerin girdi maliyetlerini azalt\u0131r. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE enflasyonu h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3,1 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan seyrederken, bu dezenflasyonist \u015fok Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara vermesi i\u00e7in ek gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, savunma sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hisselerinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6stermesini bekliyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da d\u00fc\u015fen tansiyon, gelecekteki askeri s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler ve yabanc\u0131 askeri sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na do\u011frudan yans\u0131r. Raytheon ve Lockheed Martin gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fcklenicilerde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 veya put al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Rusya\u2019n\u0131n petrol muafiyetlerine ili\u015fkin kar\u015f\u0131 arg\u00fcman\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemeliyiz. Bu muafiyetlerin sona ermesi, belirli pazarlara giden Rus denizyolu ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,4 milyon varillik k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakacak ve fiyatlar i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. Bu durum, ileri vadeli bir Brent kontrat\u0131nda uzun, \u00f6n ay WTI kontrat\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak k\u00e2rl\u0131 bir \u201cpairs trade\u201d f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarih, b\u00f6yle bir anla\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor. 2015\u2019te ilk n\u00fckleer anla\u015fman\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ran arz\u0131n\u0131n nihai d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlamas\u0131yla izleyen alt\u0131 ayda %30\u2019dan fazla gerilemi\u015fti. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ham petrolde en az diren\u00e7li yolun net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar\u0131n g\u00f6z\u00fc Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131nda: metin yak\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak, Kongre\u2019ye gidecek. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 petrol risk primini silebilir; VIX d\u00fc\u015fer. Enerji ucuzlar, savunma zay\u0131flar. Putin muafiyetleri ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48931","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48931","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48931"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48931\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48931"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48931"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48931"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}