Yen, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politika faizini %1,00\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesine ra\u011fmen ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n yatay kald\u0131. Ad\u0131m 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015fla bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini 30 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine ta\u015f\u0131rken, de\u011fi\u015fiklik b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6nceden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlamada tepki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. BoJ ayr\u0131ca enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere i\u015faret ederken, uzun vadeli tahvil al\u0131m planlar\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak ayarlamalar\u0131 da ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n
MUFG, toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi verilen kapsaml\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmenin piyasa tepkisini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi\u011fini; yurt i\u00e7i enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ise k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015fkenlikle beslendi\u011fini belirtti. Banka ayr\u0131ca BoJ\u2019un 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren niceliksel geni\u015fleme azalt\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (tapering) duraklatma plan\u0131na at\u0131f yaparak, ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma gelene kadar bu duru\u015fun para birimini k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rakabilece\u011fini ve USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160,00\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutarak yeniden m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Societe Generale, %1,00 seviyesini Japonya\u2019n\u0131n n\u00f6tr faizinin alt band\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131 ve gelecek y\u0131l sonuna kadar nihai %2 seviyesine ula\u015facak \u015fekilde \u00e7eyreklik 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f patikas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; ba\u015fka bir de\u011ferlendirmesinde ise 2027 sonuna kadar %2,00 hedef seviyesini \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen beklenen bir geli\u015fme oldu\u011fundan, Yen\u2019in k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz makas\u0131 dolar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, carry trade i\u015flemlerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n daha net bir politika patikas\u0131 ortaya koymas\u0131na kadar USD\/JPY\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek geri \u00e7ekilmelerin al\u0131c\u0131 bulmas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, yatay bantta ya da hafif yukar\u0131 e\u011filimli bir USD\/JPY\u2019den fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejilerinin daha ihtiyatl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu (CFTC) verileri, yen aleyhine spek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 tarihsel zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da en az diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortam, 160,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen USD\/JPY yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle kurun 160,00 e\u015fi\u011fine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde, kamu m\u00fcdahalesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 son derece dikkatli olmak gerekiyor. Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in rekor 9,8 trilyon yen harcad\u0131; bu, kararl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde aksiyon alma isteklili\u011fine dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tarihsel emsal. Yen\u2019de ani ve sert de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131 riski, do\u011frudan yen k\u0131sa pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 riskli hale getirirken; riski tan\u0131mlamak veya volatiliteyi i\u015fleme konu etmek i\u00e7in opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n cazibesini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Daha orta vadeli bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin son olarak %2,2 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesiyle belirginle\u015fen enflasyon hassasiyeti, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n daha uzun bir d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Politika faizinin %2,00\u2019ye do\u011fru \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen patikas\u0131, zaman i\u00e7inde dolar\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bu olas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme haz\u0131rlanmak ad\u0131na, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle daha uzun vadeli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 edinerek orta vadede yenin toparlanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoJ faizi %1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131, Yen 160\u2019a yak\u0131n yatay: art\u0131\u015f fiyatland\u0131. Enflasyon riskleri s\u00fcrerken tapering sinyali k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor. Carry trade destekli; opsiyonlarla 160 \u00fczeri\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryolar\u0131, m\u00fcdahale riskiyle izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47656,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48930"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48930\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47656"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}