ABD\u2019de yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131 may\u0131sta beklentilerin hafif alt\u0131nda kalarak y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda 1,413 milyon seviyesine geriledi. Bu rakam, 1,42 milyonluk tahminle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda konut in\u015faat faaliyetlerine y\u00f6nelik ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck g\u00f6stergelerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yumu\u015famaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, ruhsat say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n piyasa mutabakat\u0131n\u0131n 7.000 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na neden oldu. Piyasalar bu sapmay\u0131, daha geni\u015f konut talebi ve finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirecek; zira ruhsatlar genellikle ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar ve tamamlanmalar\u0131n birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6n\u00fcnde seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131 yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sapmay\u0131, konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde so\u011fumaya dair erken bir i\u015faret olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 1,413 milyon seviyesindeki bu veri, y\u00fcksek enflasyon d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan ekonomide normalle\u015fme anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu tek ba\u015f\u0131na oyunu de\u011fi\u015ftiren bir veri de\u011fil; ancak temkinli duru\u015fu peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu konut verisi, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin son okumada %2,8\u2019de yatay kalmas\u0131yla birlikte ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha \u015fahin bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131 i\u00e7in fazla neden olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun k\u0131sa vadeli faiz oran\u0131 beklentileri \u00fczerinde bir tavan olu\u015fturdu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, bant i\u00e7inde faiz hareketlerinden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla eyl\u00fcl vadeli SOFR kontratlar\u0131nda zararda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) satmak gibi stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00f6zelinde, konut \u00fcreticisi hisselerinde (homebuilder) zay\u0131flama potansiyeli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00e7o\u011fu zaman SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) gibi ETF\u2019lerde geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabiliyor. Bu olas\u0131 yava\u015flamaya do\u011frudan pozisyon almak i\u00e7in XHB\u2019de a\u011fustos vadeli sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu yumu\u015fayan makro veriler, halihaz\u0131rda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyreden piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. VIX endeksi son d\u00f6nemde 15\u2019in alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, VIX \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir hedge arac\u0131 olarak cazip buluyoruz. Konut kaynakl\u0131 yava\u015flaman\u0131n di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlere yay\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde bu, ucuz bir portf\u00f6y sigortas\u0131 i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Emtia taraf\u0131nda, bunun end\u00fcstriyel metaller ve kereste \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u00d6zellikle bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemleri, in\u015faat ve imalat g\u00fcvenine duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Fiyatlar\u0131n kritik teknik destek seviyelerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde k\u0131sa pozisyon ba\u015flatma f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 takip edece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de may\u0131s yap\u0131 ruhsatlar\u0131 1,413 milyonla beklentinin alt\u0131nda: konutta so\u011fuma sinyali. Fed i\u00e7in \u015fahin gerek\u00e7e azal\u0131yor; homebuilder\/XHB\u2019de put, VIX call hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, bak\u0131r-kereste bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48926","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48926"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48926\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48926"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48926"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48926"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}